Russell 2000 Lagging S&P 500, Technical Outlook 3 June 2025

RTY Underperformance

• ES (S&P 500 Futures) is currently trading near its all-time highs (ATH at 6,166.50), with strong weekly candles and bullish momentum.
• RTY (Russell 2000 Futures), however, is still trading ~17% below its ATH of 2,477.10, with price currently near 2,062.
• 6-month performance comparison
  • ES: -2.76% (recovering rapidly)
  • RTY: -15.20% (still in drawdown)
• The YTD performance remains negative for both, but RTY is worse:
  • ES: -0.37%
  • RTY: -8.66%

Weekly Chart of RTY: Structure and Trend

Bullish Observations:

• RTY posted a sharp rally off the April lows near 1,800.
• Recent candles show stabilization, but momentum is waning as price struggles near the 2,060–2,100 area.

Caution:

• No clear breakout above weekly resistance (~2,100–2,120).
• Weekly trend is still lower highs, lower lows, unless RTY closes decisively above 2,200.
• Compared to ES, which is in breakout formation, RTY remains a sideways laggard.

Daily Chart of RTY

Moving Averages

• 50-day MA (orange): 2,000.6 → acting as short-term support
• 200-day MA (green): 2,187.5 → strong resistance ceiling
• Price is now trapped between the two MAs.

RSI (14)

• RSI at 52.62, still in neutral territory.
• Momentum is fading, with RSI pulling back from recent peaks near 65.
• Divergence developing: price remains range-bound while momentum weakens.

Structure

• Range-bound behavior between 2,040 and 2,100
• No aggressive bullish follow-through since the rally off April lows
• Compression forming with lower highs on daily, suggesting a potential decision point soon

Key Levels for RTY

Ending Off

RTY remains the weakest link among U.S. equity indexes. While the S&P 500 is setting up for a potential ATH breakout, RTY is stalled in a neutral range. For RTY to catch up:

• A decisive close above 2,200–2,220 is needed to shift the narrative to bullish rotation.
• Otherwise, continued underperformance is likely as large-caps (ES) dominate flows.