Introduction
Euro futures are testing an important support zone around 1.1550–1.1580 after the August recovery stalled near 1.1750. Price is trading around 1.15810, putting the market at a decision point: holding this area would preserve the possibility of another recovery, while a confirmed breakdown would expose the summer trading range below.
This support zone could provide an opportunity to buy, especially since we have seen two wicks already form inside that zone. The 15 September session also formed a doji style hammer, so if we see price close above that high (1.1594) then probabilities would point to this market rallying for the next few sessions.
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Take a look at the levels below and mark them on your chart.
| Price zone | Role | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1730–1.1760 | Major resistance | August peak area and declining green moving average. A sustained recovery above would materially improve the broader outlook. |
| 1.1660–1.1690 | Secondary resistance | September’s lower-high area; a likely test for any recovery. |
| 1.1620–1.1630 | First resistance | Recent consolidation support that sellers have broken. |
| 1.1588–1.1600 | Immediate recovery hurdle | Orange moving average and nearby round number. |
| 1.1550–1.1580 | Key support | The highlighted historical zone currently being tested. |
| 1.1500–1.1520 | Initial downside area | July congestion and the 1.1500 psychological level. |
| 1.1400–1.1440 | Major downside support | June–July lows and the base of the summer recovery. |
Possible Trades
For a bullish setup, look for evidence that the support test has finished. A close above 1.1594 could be the entry signal.
For a bearish continuation, the stronger signal would be a daily close below 1.1550 followed by a failed retest from underneath.
Timing matters today: the September 16 Fed decision is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Central, followed by the press conference 30 minutes later. With price sitting at support, the initial reaction could cross both sides of the zone. The post-announcement hold or failed retest will be more informative than the first spike.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
