Crude Oil Futures (CL) Technical Analysis, 8 August

Technical Overview

Trend and Structure

• Crude oil continues to sell off after last week’s sharp rejection from the 200-day moving average ($67.86) and key pivot level ($68.50).
• Price is now trading below both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, which flips the medium-term structure to bearish.
• The breakdown below $66.60 confirms a short-term trend reversal after multiple failed attempts to establish a higher low.
• There’s no clear support until the $62.30 S2 level, and beyond that, the next major test is $59.90 (S3) — a level not seen since early June.

Momentum & Volatility

• Multiple consecutive red candles with narrow real bodies point to controlled selling pressure, not panic.
• The failure to sustain any bullish impulse near resistance shows lack of dip-buying interest, at least for now.

Key Technical Levels

Probability Table

Trade Setups

Bearish Setup

• Entry: On breakdown below $63.50
• Target: $62.30 (S2), extend to $60.00 (S3)
• Stop: Above $66.00 (back inside broken support)

Bullish Reversal Setup

• Entry: Reclaim of $66.60 and daily close above
• Target: $68.50 pivot, stretch target $71.60 (R1)
• Stop: Below $64.00

Macro & Cross-Asset Context

• Geopolitics: Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil is not reacting as bullishly as expected, suggesting demand concerns are outweighing supply fears.
• USD Strength: A rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is pressuring oil by making it more expensive for non-dollar buyers.
• Equity Weakness: Broader U.S. equity hesitation is adding to oil’s bearish tone, with risk-off sentiment curbing commodity appetite.

Final Takeaway

CL is vulnerable to deeper downside with sellers in control. A failure to hold above $63 could expose the market to a drop toward $60. Bulls need to step in soon — otherwise, this breakdown could develop into a broader trend reversal.