Introduction
Crude oil has moved back above the $100 level, but the market is still struggling to fully break away from the consolidation range that has developed over the past several weeks. Now though, it does look like the bulls are gaining an edge over the bears even during this consolidation phase.
With that said the rally from the March breakout remains intact, and buyers are still defending higher lows, but price action has become much less aggressive compared to the initial surge higher. Instead of trending cleanly upward, CL is now rotating back and forth between support and resistance as traders react to geopolitical headlines, supply concerns, and shifting expectations around global growth.
The market is still heavily influenced by developments in the Middle East. Ongoing tensions surrounding shipping routes, regional military activity, and supply disruption risks continue to support oil prices overall.
Crude Oil Daily Chart Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the structure still favors buyers as long as the market holds above the major support zone between $84–88.
The bounce back toward $100 shows buyers are still active, but momentum has slowed compared to the explosive move seen in March. Price is now moving in a more rotational manner, with rallies fading near resistance and pullbacks stabilizing above support.
The upper resistance zone near $108–110 remains the key level to watch. Sellers have defended that area multiple times, and until crude can break through it cleanly, the market will likely continue chopping inside this broader range.
1-Hour Chart
While the daily chart still shows crude consolidating, the intraday chart shows buyers gradually regaining control after holding above the pivot area near 97.20.
Price has started forming a series of higher lows over the last several sessions, and the move back above the psychological $100 level suggests short-term momentum is stabilizing again after last week’s pullback. The intraday structure also looks cleaner now compared to the choppier conditions seen earlier in the month.
From a technical standpoint, the next important level on the upside is the R1 pivot near 105.70. That area lines up closely with the broader resistance zone discussed in the daily analysis, so traders will likely pay close attention to how price reacts if crude continues pushing higher.
On the downside, the pivot near 97.20 remains as short-term support. As long as price continues holding above that level, buyers still maintain short-term control of momentum. A break back below it could shift focus toward the mid-90s again.
Key Levels
- Major resistance: $108–110
- Intraday resistance (R1): $105.70
- Psychological level: $100
- Pivot support: $97.20
- Major daily support zone: $84–88
- Major long-term support: $69–70
Estimated Probabilities
| Scenario | Description | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidation | Continued range between $88 and $110 | 45% |
| Bullish Breakout | Break above $110 leads to continuation higher | 35% |
| Pullback | Loss of support sends price back toward low $80s | 20% |
Possible Trades
Long setups continue to favor pullbacks into support rather than chasing. As long as crude remains above the $84–88 region, buyers still maintain control of the broader structure.
Short-term traders may also look at the hourly pivot near $97.20 as an important decision area. Holding above it keeps the short-term bullish structure intact, while losing it would likely weaken momentum.
Short setups become more attractive only if the market begins breaking below support at $97.20 while momentum weakens further.
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or trading advice. Trading futures, forex, and other leveraged financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any trading decisions, conduct your own research, assess your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor if necessary.
