Introduction
Crude oil futures are still bullish on the daily chart, but the rally is testing major resistance around 102 to 105. The breakout above the 91 to 92 zone has accelerated sharply, and on this session price is about 100.97 after tagging as high as 104.46.
CL has now reached its highest level since May, this was driven primarily from the war escalations in the middle east.
We are now approaching $110 a barrel and if we see prices go above that, we are moving into uncharted territory and from we could even see levels of $130 or higher.
Crude Oil Trend Analysis
Since the July low near 65.79, crude has formed higher lows and higher highs. Price is above both rising moving averages, and that supports the bullish structure. The highlighted 91 to 92 zone was resistance and is now the key support that protects the September breakout.
What we’re watching now is whether bulls can clear 102 to 105. If they can hold 100 and get a daily close above 105, continuation toward 108 to 110 stays in play. A pullback that forms a higher low around 94 to 96, or back at 91 to 92, could also build a stronger base for another advance.
If we keep getting rejection from 102 to 105 and then a daily close below 100, a retracement toward 94 to 96 and then 91 to 92 becomes more likely. A sustained break below 91 would undermine the September breakout and open the rising trendline and moving average region around 82 to 85.
RSI is stretched at 74.73, above the usual 70 overbought area. That makes the rally vulnerable to a pullback, but it does not confirm a reversal on its own. There is no trade to take from this packet. We’re mapping the levels and letting the close choose.
Possible Trades
Scenario 1: Bullish continuation
- Entry trigger: daily close above 105 while 100 holds
- Stop: below 100
- Target: 108 to 110
Scenario 2: Pullback / breakdown
- Entry trigger: daily close below 100 after rejection from 102 to 105
- Stop: above 105
- Target: 94 to 96, then 91 to 92 if that gives way
Scenario 3: Range / do not chase
If crude chops between 100 and 102 to 105 without a clean daily close through either side, we stay out of the middle. The rally into resistance is already in, and RSI is stretched. Chasing either side before the close chooses is the trade we do not take.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
