Follow-Up: July 29 Levels
The prior analysis flagged a close below 79.92 as the signal that the 82 confluence zone had failed, with 75.00 as the initial downside target. Price has now closed at 79.67, right at that trigger. The setup is playing out as the bearish case outlined, and this week is going to be very important. Lets take a closer look at the levels again and if there are any trades available.
Trend Analysis
CL’s broader shape hasn’t changed since the last update: a sharp spring spike, a collapse into the high-60s, and a fast recovery back above 90 that has since faded. What’s new is that the pullback from the late-July high has now taken out the moving-average confluence at 80.96, a zone that had been acting as support since the recovery began. That failure is the main development since the last note — price is no longer holding above both moving averages, and the faster one has flipped from support to resistance.
The slower moving average (68.69) is still rising steadily and remains well below current price, so the longer-term trend structure isn’t in question yet. This is best read as a shorter-term momentum shift within that broader trend rather than a reversal of it, at least until 75.00–77.00 is tested.
Levels to Watch
Resistance
| Level | Notes |
|---|---|
| 80.96 | Faster moving average, now overhead |
| 82.00 | Broken support, now first resistance on any bounce |
| 90.00 | Late-July swing high |
Support
| Level | Notes |
|---|---|
| 78.78 | Session low |
| 75.00 – 77.00 | June consolidation shelf, first real target |
| 68.69 | Slower moving average, major trend support |
Possible Trades
Bearish continuation
- Entry trigger: close below 78.78
- Stop: above 82.00
- Target: 75.00, then 68.69
Bounce / reclaim scenario
- Entry trigger: close back above 82.00
- Stop: below 78.78
- Target: 90.00
Market Context
Crude has remained sensitive to Strait of Hormuz headlines and Fed policy expectations through this stretch, and that hasn’t changed — diplomatic developments or fresh supply data can move this market quickly enough to invalidate either scenario intraday. Worth checking the news flow alongside these levels rather than trading them in isolation.
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Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Nothing in this article should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
