Introduction
Since our last analysis, the Euro FX Futures (6E) have moved higher into the resistance zone of the downward-sloping trend line. Bears have not been strong enough to push price down to the support at 1.1424, and so now, bulls are looking to make a new push, which could lead to a new leg in the bull trend that started in March. The question now is whether the euro can finally break higher — or if this is just another stall before retreating.
Technical Update
Trend Structure
The euro has been in a medium-term uptrend since March, consistently holding above the 50-day MA except for one occasion toward the end of July. It has been a strong support for the trend and bulls are not giving it up easily.
A descending trendline from the July highs has acted as resistance, but 6E is now testing that ceiling again and is actually sitting above it. Price is also sitting below the 1.182 and 1.18895 levels, which are the recent highs, and if bulls can push above that, it will be a strong marker for the continuation of the new uptrend.
Key Levels
| Level | Type | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1890 | Resistance | July high – breakout confirmation above here |
| 1.1820 | Resistance | First strong rejection zone |
| 1.1710–1.1750 | Current resistance test | Bulls need to clear this |
| 1.1562 | Support | Recent base |
| 1.1424 | Major support | Key invalidation zone |
Probability Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout above 1.182 → retest 1.189–1.190 | 45% | RSI supports upside, coiling near resistance |
| Range consolidation (1.156–1.182) | 35% | Resistance may hold again; euro chops sideways |
| Breakdown toward 1.142 | 20% | Only if USD strengthens sharply or risk-off sentiment hits |
Trade Ideas
Bullish Breakout Play
- Entry: Above 1.182
- Target: 1.189 → 1.195
- Stop: Below 1.169
Range Rejection Short
- Entry: Near 1.175–1.180 if rejection wicks form
- Target: 1.156 → 1.150
- Stop: Above 1.185
Final Takeaway
The euro is at an important resistance zone. The structure still leans bullish, with higher lows intact and the 50-day MA holding. However, the 1.182–1.189 resistance levels need to be cleared for the new leg of the uptrend to be back on, and another rejection could push 6E back toward the mid-1.15s.
- Break above 1.182 would mark a trend continuation toward new local highs.
- Failure here suggests continued choppiness and range trading.
The next few sessions will be crucial in deciding whether this is a breakout or another false start.
