Introduction
The US dollar has bounced strongly from its September lows, moving back above both the 50 and the 200 moving average and trading near 101.05 on the daily chart. The recovery puts the June–July highs back in reach, but buyers still have to clear an important resistance zone before we can call this a breakout.
Will the dollar push through 101.80, or are we looking at another rally inside the range?
Daily Chart
DXY has recovered from around 98.60–98.80, reclaiming 100.00 and moving above the 50 day moving average at 99.91. The green moving average sits at 99.24 and is rising, giving buyers another support reference if the market pulls back.
The broader structure has improved, with the September lows holding above the lows made earlier this year. However, price remains below the June–July highs around 101.50–101.80, where previous rallies ran into selling.
A daily close above that zone, followed by a retest that holds, would strengthen the bullish case. 102.00 would then become the next upside reference. An intraday move above resistance that closes back below it would leave the breakout unconfirmed.
On a pullback, the first area to watch is 100.40–100.60. This is where earlier rallies stalled and the latest advance accelerated. If buyers defend it, the market could establish a higher low before another attempt at resistance.
Below that, 99.90–100.00 brings the orange moving average and the psychological level together. Losing this area would weaken the recovery and bring 99.20–99.25 back into focus.
Key Levels
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 100.40–100.60 | 101.50–101.80 |
| 99.90–100.00 | 102.00 |
| 99.20–99.25 | |
| 98.60–98.80 |
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This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
