Introduction
S&P 500 E-mini futures continue showing strong bullish momentum after reclaiming and breaking above the previous all-time high near 7,097.25. Following the sharp selloff in March and early April, buyers aggressively stepped back into the market, completely reversing the bearish structure.
The current daily chart shows ES futures trading firmly above the 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages as momentum continues building toward new highs. The breakout above previous ATH resistance has now shifted market structure back into a strong bullish trend.
ES has remained in a powerful recovery trend since bottoming near 6,400 in April. The breakout above previous all-time highs confirms that buyers have regained control since the escalations started in the Middle East.
Estimated Probabilities for ES Futures
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Market Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Continued breakout toward 7,500+ | 55% | Buyers maintain momentum above previous ATH support |
| Consolidation above 7,097 | 30% | ES pauses after the breakout while maintaining bullish structure |
| Pullback toward 7,100 support | 15% | Profit-taking triggers short-term retracement |
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Major Resistance Levels
- 7,400
- 7,500
- 7,600
Major Support Levels
- 7,323 (21-day moving average)
- 7,097 previous ATH
- 6,990 (50-day moving average)
Possible Trades
Bullish Continuation Trade
If we see strong closes above $7,400, buying into that momentum is possible.
Pullback Trade Setup
As long as ES remains above the previous ATH breakout level, we could continue watching for pullbacks within the uptrend. For example, if we see small pullbacks like the one we are in at the moment, waiting for a bullish reversal candle can be a strong entry. Any bounce off the 21 MA could also be a solid buying opportunity.
As long as ES remains above $7,100 then the trend is bullish and longs are higher probability trades than shorts. Important to remember, however, that the developments in the Middle East and from the FED will massively impact the market and will override all technicals.
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or trading advice. Trading futures, forex, and other leveraged financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any trading decisions, conduct your own research, assess your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor if necessary.
