consumer confidence index
Technical Analysis

S&P 500 Futures (ES) fall on upbeat data, technicals to watch

  • The head and shoulder pattern is still in play but dangling on by a thread.
  • Technicals are mixed as the FOMC announcement comes later today.
  • Trader mindset announcement

Head & Shoulders

It has been a while since we looked at ES because we have been waiting for the head and shoulders on the daily chart to play out. Recent economic data has shown a stronger-than-anticipated US economy which leads economists to believe further rate hikes are on the table.

ES has fallen 5.5% from recent highs.

The head and shoulders is technically still in play, as the neckline is at around $3,960. ES is trading at $4,000 at the time of writing. We will need to wait and see how the FOMC is digested later today and if the neckline is going to hold as support. A bounce off the neckline can be a long signal for us but at the moment its too early to make that call. Even if we see support of the neckline in the form of a bounce, I would not be convinced enough to take a long position. We should wait and see if something more concrete forms, such as a double bottom, 1-2-3 reversal, or false break candle entry, occur instead of just a candlestick reversal at that point. The bounce might just be temporary, especially with the uncertainty in the market at the moment regarding the Fed’s path.


I drew a green line on the chart from the recent low, which is our first bullish trend line in almost a year. We should monitor this line closely. A break below this line would signal that the bullish trend is over for now, and the head and shoulders is off the table. This would give bears targets of $3,827.

The RSI has also just crossed the 50 line from being above it for the entire year. This tells us that long trades should be put on hold, but in my opinion, we should just be sitting on our hands at this point.

Daily Chart ES showing head and shoulders and bullish trend line
Daily Chart ES

Announcement about trader mindset

Soon, we will be launching something called ‘trader mindset.’ It’s a series of 1 on 1 sessions traders can book to have with Jay.

In these sessions, we are going to focus 80% of our attention on mindset and 20% on the practical elements required in trading and markets. We are going to look at your schedule, personality, and trading philosophy to begin building a solid plan you can rely on. We will not cover trading strategies in these sessions nor technical patterns or setups. I am simply here to help you understand the best path forward toward achieving trading success. I am here to support you. We will be releasing a video soon with more details.

Topics we will discuss include:

  • Objective trading vs. subjective trading
  • Developing an actual plan and something that you can trust
  • ‘Importance’ as a major factor in why failure arises and how to release it
  • The ego and its role in trading decisions
  • How you can make trading easy
  • How to make the choice that successful trading is what you actually want
  • Vital exercises to improve your trading ability and decision making
  • Why your expectations on the outcome are the reason things don’t work out
  • All major athletes need coaches. Trading is no different
  • How to think in probabilities

If this is something that interests you and would like to be added to the list for a free session once rolled out, please add me on discord here Jay-OUP#6138, or send me an email at