Introduction
Gold futures (GC) have been consolidating near all-time highs, with price action stalling after eight consecutive bullish weekly candles. The market showed momentum only last Tuesday, while the rest of the week saw sideways movement. Despite this consolidation, the weekly close remained bullish, keeping the long-term uptrend intact.
As of now, gold is trading at around 2,954.57, hovering just below its all-time high.
Market Drivers & Key Developments
- Weekly Momentum Paused: Despite the broader uptrend, the last three daily candles have been doji candles, indicating market indecision and potential exhaustion near the highs.
- Previous Week’s High Acting as Resistance: Gold is struggling to break decisively above last week’s high, adding to the consolidation phase.
- Potential Chart Patterns in Play:
- On the 1H timeframe, a head and shoulders pattern is developing, signaling a possible bearish reversal.
- However, if price stabilizes near 2,950, this could shift into a bullish flag, which would support continuation to the upside.
- Psychological & Technical Support: The 2,900 level, along with the ascending trendline, remains critical for bulls. If buyers step in at this level, another leg higher is likely.
Technical Outlook
Key Levels & Trend Structure
- Price remains inside an upward channel, with the middle trendline acting as dynamic support.
- The weekly low of 2,906 is an important pivot—holding above it favors another move higher.
- The 2,990 resistance zone is capping further upside—a breakout above this would signal trend continuation.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
- Resistance Levels:
- 2,990 (Major Resistance – Breakout Level)
- 3,000+ (Psychological Level & Potential Extension Target)
- Support Levels:
- 2,906 (Weekly Low – Key Pivot Zone)
- 2,900 (Trendline & Psychological Support – Must Hold for Bulls)
- 2,807 (Lower Support & Bullish Channel Floor)
If gold fails to break 2,990, price could pull back to 2,906 – 2,900 for a trendline retest before attempting another push higher.
Momentum & Market Sentiment
- Uptrend Still Intact: The weekly close was bullish, confirming that the larger trend remains positive.
- RSI Nearing Overbought Levels: Momentum is not fully exhausted, but the market is struggling to push higher.
- Consolidation Below Resistance: The market is coiling, which could lead to a breakout or a corrective pullback before continuation.
The market remains bullish overall, but a deeper correction could occur if 2,900 fails to hold.
Bull & Bear Scenarios
Bull Case: Breakout Above 2,990
- If price breaks and holds above 2,990, a rally toward 3,000+ could follow.
- Buyers need to defend the 2,900 level for upside momentum to continue.
Bear Case: Rejection at Resistance & Pullback
- If gold fails to break 2,990, price could retest 2,906 – 2,900.
- A break below 2,900 would open the door for a deeper pullback to 2,807 or lower.
Final Outlook
- Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Neutral to bullish, watching for a breakout attempt at 2,990.
- Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Bullish unless price closes below 2,900.
- Long-Term (6+ Months): Uptrend intact as long as gold stays above 2,807.
