Recap from April 14 Outlook:
In the last analysis, CL had just bounced from key support in the $57–$58 zone and was testing the underside of its former value area (~$66), attempting to confirm a higher low. We concluded that if CL couldn’t reclaim and hold above the 50-day SMA and resistance box, a return to the lows—or new ones—was likely.
Today’s chart confirms that bearish risk is now happening.
Current Price Action (April 30, 2025)
- Last Price: $59.68
- Key Levels:
- 50 SMA: $66.22 (rejected cleanly)
- 200 SMA: $70.78 (well above price)
- Recent swing low: $55.16 (support)
CL has now rolled over again from $64–$65, failing to hold above the 50-day SMA and closing red three sessions in a row, placing renewed downside pressure on the tape.
Technical Breakdown
Trendlines & Resistance:
- The descending trendline (from October 2023) continues to act as a guide for lower prices.
- The shaded green value area between ~$63 and $67 was once support — now turned resistance after a classic bearish throwback.
- CL rejected directly from the 50-day SMA and pivot area last week, forming a lower high.
Support Zone:
- The $55.16 level is now critical — a break below would confirm a fresh breakdown and likely accelerate selling toward the $52–$50 region.
RSI:
- RSI (14) has rolled over again at 40.66, now back to 36.54, showing bearish momentum rebuild.
- Still above oversold, so there’s room for further downside before technical exhaustion.
Comparing To Other Assets
While other assets like gold and bitcoin are showing strength, crude oil is diverging significantly. This weakness could be attributed to:
- Recessionary demand concerns
- Dollar volatility (though USD is also weak, which should normally support oil — but hasn’t)
- Muted geopolitical premium, despite headlines (suggesting waning risk appetite in energy)
Probabilities
| Scenario | Probability | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Breaks below $55.16 | 55% | Bearish momentum increasing, failed resistance retest confirms risk |
| Retest $63–$64 area again | 25% | Only likely if macro risk-on returns (equities rebound strongly) |
| Sideways $57–$61 range | 20% | Possible near-term consolidation, but pressure is clearly down |
Short-Term Levels to Watch
| Type | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | $66.22 | 50-day SMA / rejection zone |
| Support | $55.16 | Key prior low – must hold |
| Breakdown target | ~$52.00–$50.00 | Measured move projection |
Final Take:
Crude oil appears to have confirmed a failed rebound. The inability to hold above the 50-day moving average and subsequent breakdown in RSI momentum shifts the balance toward the bears.
Unless bulls step in aggressively near $57 and defend it strongly, the $55.16 low will be tested imminently. A break below that would complete a fresh bearish leg.
Technical Outlook:
| Timeframe | Bias | Key Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Bearish | $57.00–$55.16 must hold |
| Medium-Term | Cautious Bearish | Below all key MAs, trendline intact |
| Long-Term | Neutral | Still holding above $50, but macro needed |
