Introduction
Nasdaq futures have finally seen the pullback that we discussed in our previous analysis. Back on May 21, we highlighted the bearish divergence developing on the MACD and noted that while the trend remained bullish, momentum was beginning to slow. Since then, that scenario has largely played out.
After making fresh all-time highs above 30,000, NQ pulled back into the key support zone near 28,850. The good news for bulls is that buyers have started responding around that area, and the broader trend remains intact for now.
It does look like a temporary pullback as the market still is in a strong uptrend. Let’s take a closer look at the technicals and if there are any possible trades to take.
NQ Futures Trend Analysis
Important Points
Looking at the chart, NQ is testing an important support zone near 28,850 while remaining above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Buyers are still in control at this point.
That 28,850 level is the most important right now because a move below that means we test the 50-day MA, and if that doesn’t hold, then a test of the 200 MA could come too. Most likely, though, we are seeing a small pullback in the uptrend as there are no major signals now that point toward a trend reversal.
Estimated Probabilities for NQ Futures
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Market Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Recovery toward 30,000 highs | 50% | Buyers defend support and resume the uptrend |
| Consolidation between 28,850 and 30,000 | 35% | Market digests recent gains and resets momentum |
| Pullback toward 28,000 support | 15% | Sellers extend the correction lower |
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Major Resistance Levels
- 30,000
- 30,500
- 31,000
Major Support Levels
- 28,850 support zone
- 27,993 (50-day moving average)
- 26,050 (200-day moving average)
NQ Possible Trades
Bullish Continuation Trade
The primary trend remains bullish. If buyers continue defending support and momentum starts improving again, NQ could make another push toward the 30,000 region and potentially challenge the highs.
Consolidation Trade Setup
Following the strong rally from April through May, a period of sideways price action would not be surprising.
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or trading advice. Trading futures, forex, and other leveraged financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any trading decisions, conduct your own research, assess your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor if necessary.
