Introduction
A few days ago, we looked at ES and whether the price would be able to stay above the all-time high. Yesterday’s candle has given the bulls a very strong case with a rally of 1.6% on the day.
Lets take a closer look at the technicals and what they are telling us.
The rally has been persistent. There hasn’t been much in the way of deep pullbacks, and each pause has been relatively shallow.
Important Levels
- Support: 7,100–7,130 (previous ATH, now well established)
- Near-term support: ~7,000
- Upside: Open, no defined resistance
Price is now extended above the breakout zone, which means the market is relying less on that level and more on continued momentum. The bulls will need to keep the pressure on into the upcoming FOMC release next week on the 6th.
The market also needs to keep a close eye on developments in the middle east and the Dollar moving forward. A strong Dollar makes it more difficult for equities to rally and vice versa.
Scenarios and Probabilities
| Scenario | Description | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Continuation | Holds above 7,100 and continues trending higher | 45% |
| Consolidation | Pullback or range between ~7,000 and ~7,250 | 40% |
| Deeper Pullback | Loss of momentum → move back toward 7,000 or below | 15% |
Possible Trades
Longs still favor the trend, but chasing at these levels becomes less attractive. The cleaner opportunities are likely to come from pullbacks, especially into areas like 7,100–7,150, where prior structure sits.
Shorts are still lower probability unless there is a clear change in behavior—something like a break back below prior highs and failure to reclaim.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Futures and forex trading involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
