Quick Recap From Yesterday
In yesterday’s crude oil technical analysis, we saw a big jump in the price after the weekend’s developments in Iran. Here is a snapshot:
- Breakout above $68
- Expansion move toward $75
- $68–70 as new support
- $80 as next psychological target
The candle from yesterday also closed firmly green after the gap up. After the close, price opened lower but still in the range of the previous candle and is currently trading in the green.
Let’s take a look at recent developments in the Middle East and new technical targets we can go for.
New Developments – Iran & Middle East
Recent updates influencing crude oil prices:
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalating
Reports indicate increased military presence and naval positioning near the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping insurers have reportedly raised risk premiums for vessels operating in the region.
Even without a direct supply disruption, this increases supply risk, which supports the price of CL.
Iranian Rhetoric & Regional Activity
Iranian officials have issued stronger warnings regarding retaliation scenarios tied to regional conflicts. There are also reports of heightened activity involving regional proxy groups.
Markets interpret this as a higher probability of risk, especially to shipping lanes or energy infrastructure.
OPEC Monitoring Situation
OPEC sources have indicated they are “closely monitoring developments.” No emergency supply increase has been announced.
U.S. Response & Naval Presence
The U.S. has reportedly increased regional monitoring and defensive positioning. While framed as precautionary, it confirms the seriousness of the situation.
This keeps volatility elevated in oil futures.
Based on the information above, we estimate it is roughly 75% bullish for the price of CL, meaning we are likely to see continued upside momentum, but traders must be on high alert as the market is extremely sensitive at the moment.
Technical Structure – What’s Changed?
Daily Chart Update
- Price closed above $75
- Momentum remains strong
- No meaningful pullback yet
- Everything is still hinging on developments in the Middle East.
Pivot Levels
- R1: 69.53
- R2: 72.03
- R3: 76.24
- R4: 80.44
- R5: 84.64
Price is currently pressing toward R3 (~76.24).
If R3 clears cleanly, $80 becomes the next possible target.
Key Levels Going Forward
Resistance
$76–77 (R3 area)
First major decision point.
$80–81
Psychological and structural resistance.
Support
$70–72
First pullback zone.
$68
Breakout validation level.
Loss of $68 would signal war premium fading. Again, all of this is dependent on the macro developments. The technicals just give an outline of what to target, possible support, and resistance, but these levels could all get blasted through on big news events.
Scenarios
Continued Escalation (40%)
Break above $76 → extension toward $80–84.
Controlled Pullback (35%)
Retest of $70–72 before next leg higher.
Sudden De-escalation (25%)
Drop back below $68 and re-enter prior range.
Final Takeaway
Keep watching the news!
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
