Introduction
NQ continues to make higher highs and follow the upward-sloping trendline since April. NQ is up 54% since then. Price is above the 50-MA (24,083) and 200-MA (21,876), and the trend remains firmly bullish. There are very few pullbacks on the daily chart, with the biggest being 4.4% leaving very few opportunities for traders to buy the dip.
Let’s take a closer look at the technicals and what they tell us.
What’s changed since last update
The price broke above the high with ease since our previous analysis, with little resistance from the sellers. Besides this, nothing has changed as price is moving toward the R1 pivot resistance point at 25611.00. Bulls remain in control, and the steady uptrend remains intact with very shallow pullbacks.
Key levels (price/MA chart)
The upward-sloping trend line is the key level that must hold for the steady uptrend to remain intact. The 50 MA below that at 24,083 is the next support if the trend line breaks. The pivot point is at 24,318, also an important support level.
Resistance moving higher is the R1 level at 25611.00 is the only real resistance moving higher right now. Above this is R2 at 26320.00.
RSI holds as bullish, no clear daily bearish divergence at the moment, and it supports the momentum we see in the price action.
Estimated Outlook
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Trend extension toward R1 25,611 (and possibly 25,800–26,000) | 45% | Requires holding the trendline. |
| Sideways consolidation 24,900–25,350 | 35% | Consolidation under highs while RSI loses strength. |
| Pullback to 24,300–24,100 (Pivot / 50-MA) | 20% | Could occur due to a news event. |
Ending Off:
The uptrend remains firmly intact, and buyers are defending the trend line. Bears will be looking to try to push prices below the trend line, but as long as it holds, bulls are in control.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.