Gold Holds Trendline Support — Coiling for a Breakout?
Previous Analysis: July 1, 2025
Gold futures continue to respect the long-term uptrend, with price currently consolidating above both the ascending trendline and the 50-day moving average (3,330.8). This follows through from the July 1st update, where we outlined the trendline retest and MACD bearish momentum. That test has held, and bulls may now be eyeing a retest of the ATH at 3,509.9.
Technical Overview
| Indicator | Value / Signal |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 3,344.4 |
| ATH (Horizontal Resistance) | 3,509.9 |
| Support Levels | 3,330.8 (50MA), 3,300 (trendline), 2,946.5 (200MA) |
| 50MA vs Price | Price holding above the 50-day MA |
| Trendline Status | Re-tested and defended after dip |
| Price Structure | Higher lows remain intact |
Macro Context
- Dollar Weakness Continues: As per our DXY analysis, the U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, providing a strong tailwind for gold.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty (Middle East tensions and rate cut speculation) continues to underpin safe-haven demand.
Recap from Last Article
In the July 1 analysis, we anticipated a bounce or breakdown off the confluence of the 50MA and rising support. Gold bounced sharply the following day, validating the importance of that zone.
Estimated Probability Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout to new highs > 3,510 | 50% | Momentum returning, USD weak, trend support intact |
| Sideways Consolidation (3,300–3,450) | 35% | Market might base longer before breakout |
| Breakdown below trendline (<3,300) | 15% | Only likely if DXY finds strength or yields spike |
Trade Ideas
| Strategy | Parameters |
|---|---|
| Trend Continuation Long | Buy above 3,360 with stop below 3,300, target 3,500+ |
| Pullback Buy | Enter near 3,310–3,320, stop below trendline (~3,280), target ATH |
Final Outlook
| Time Frame | Bias | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Neutral-Bullish | Awaiting clean breakout or deeper retest |
| Medium-Term | Bullish | Higher lows, trend intact, macro supportive |
| Long-Term | Bullish | Strong structural base, fundamentally supported |
Ending Off
As long as Gold stays above $3,250 then the bulls remain fairly in control, if a break down of that level occurs the bears have a stronger case developing but at the moment that is less likely to occur than continued bullish momentum.
