US interest futures fell slightly on Thursday as traders backed off bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates more aggressively later in 2026, after economic data revealed significant improvement. The CME Group’s 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices indicate the decreased probability of more than one cut since last week. Contracts ending in September and Read More…
Crude oil futures fell to the $63.50 region after two days of gains, as talks between Iran and the US in Oman eased fears of a broader disruption in the Middle East. The move, as reported, shows the market’s sensitivity. The risk premium can disappear quickly when diplomacy signals are strong and then return just Read More…
Gold’s latest leg higher is best understood through futures-led risk repricing. As tensions between the US and Iran grew, investors quickly moved into safe havens, pushing gold futures up 3.49% to $5,107 and spot prices through the $5,000 psychological barrier to $5,089. Silver rose 5.77% to $88.00, which supported the “panic hedge” trade. This aligns Read More…
US equities started February with strong momentum, but this time, under a more complicated environment. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all had reasonable gains at the start of the month. Futures also pointed to a positive bias, suggesting that investors are willing to take on more risk even as they remain worried about the Read More…
Currency futures markets are recalibrating amid political and macroeconomic events in the US that are affecting investors’ sentiment toward the US dollar. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has changed expectations toward a less flexible policy path. This has supported the US dollar across futures markets. The bias in euro FX Read More…
US interest futures are currently at the center of the macro debate as markets and the Fed diverge on the timing and speed of policy easing. Pricing in 3-month SOFR futures on CME indicates that traders still expect a lower policy rate path over 2026 than today. However, the depth and pace of cuts implied Read More…
