Technical Analysis

Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) Technical Analysis 14 August

Technical Overview

Russell 2000 technical analysis oneup trader funded trader program

Trend & Structure

The Russell 2000 futures have surged in the past two trading sessions, up 5% marking its best two days since the 5th of November 2025. This was on the back of a positive CPI report that showed inflation is in line with expectations. The price broke decisively above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a prolonged sideways range. This is a very bullish sign for the index.

  • The breakout rally over the past week has been sharp, leaving price extended in the short term.
  • The next major resistance lies at the all-time high zone around 2,477, meaning there’s still room to the upside before a key decision point.
  • The Russell’s relative strength vs. other U.S. indices means that there is small-cap participation in the broader rally.

Momentum & Indicators

  • RSI at 66.12 is nearing overbought but not yet flashing an extreme warning.
  • The rally has been fast, so a minor pullback toward 2,300 would be healthy before another leg higher.

Key Technical Levels

LevelTypeComment
2,477Major ResistanceAll-time high, key breakout trigger if cleared
2,333–2,300Minor SupportNear-term consolidation zone
2,212–2,189Strong Support50DMA and 200DMA confluence
2,050Secondary SupportPre-breakout base from June
1,900Major SupportMarch lows, bear control if broken

Probability Table

ScenarioEstimated ProbabilityCommentary
Push toward ATH at 2,47750%Breakout momentum + small-cap leadership favors continuation
Pullback to 2,300 before resuming higher35%Likely after such a fast run; could offer better long entries
Breakdown below 2,21215%Would negate bullish breakout structure in the short term

Trade Setups

Bullish Continuation Play

  • Entry: On breakout above 2,340 intraday or on pullback to 2,300 with support confirmation
  • Target 1: 2,400
  • Target 2: 2,470–2,477 (ATH)
  • Stop: Below 2,295

Countertrend Short (Aggressive)

  • Entry: On failed breakout attempt near 2,400–2,420 with reversal candle
  • Target: 2,300
  • Stop: Above 2,435