Technical Overview
Resistance Zone & ATH
- The pink box marks a long-standing resistance area between 22,265 and 22,425 (matching the R1 pivot and ATH).
- Multiple prior attempts have failed at this zone, including the failed April breakout.
- Price is now coiling just underneath, forming bullish pressure.
Key Pivot Levels
| Pivot Zone | Price |
|---|---|
| ATH / R1 | 22,425.75 |
| R2 | 23,151.50 |
| R3 | 24,444.00 |
| Pivot (neutral) | 20,971.50 |
| S1 (support) | 20,084.00 |
It looks like its just a matter of time before the price breaks above the high but nothing is certain in markets so we have to wait and see.
Momentum & RSI Analysis
- RSI (14): 67.63 – trending upward, approaching overbought territory but not diverging yet.
- Signal Line (SMA): 65.35 – showing consistent upside trend.
- No bearish divergence visible at this time, meaning momentum is still validating price strength.
Sentiment & Broader Context
- Semiconductors and AI sectors (heavyweights in NQ) remain strong, lifting NQ ahead of other indices like RTY (Russell).
- Seasonality from June into July tends to favor tech cyclically.
- Macro data remains mixed but risk-on sentiment is prevailing — this favors high beta and tech indices like NQ.
Bullish Case (Breakout Setup)
- A daily close above 22,425.75 (ATH) would mark fresh price discovery and likely ignite a further rally.
- Measured move (based on recent leg):
- Base at ~20,000 to ~22,425 = ~2,425 points
- Breakout target: ~24,850 (just above R3)
Trade Setup
- Breakout Buy Trigger: Daily close above 22,450
- Stop: Below 21,750 (last swing low)
- Targets:
- Initial: 23,150 (R2)
- Full: 24,400–24,800 (R3 + measured)
Bearish Case (Rejection Setup)
- Failure at current zone could repeat April’s false breakout, triggering a double top scenario.
- If RSI rolls down below 65 and a red candle closes under 21,750 → reversal becomes probable.
- This opens a test of S1 at 20,084.
Bear Setup (Only if rejection confirmed)
- Trigger: Daily close below 21,750
- Target: 20,970 then 20,084 (support zones)
- Stop: ATH area reclaim (above 22,450)
Summary
| Timeframe | Bias | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Bullish Bias | Price compression under ATH, strong RSI, no divergence |
| Medium-Term | Neutral to Bullish | Needs confirmation via breakout or rejection pattern |
| Long-Term | Bullish | Overall uptrend intact unless macro cracks tech |
Final Take
NQ is staging a textbook breakout attempt at all-time highs. The momentum remains positive, and unless a hard rejection forms, bulls remain in control. Traders should prepare for either a high-conviction breakout play or a quick fade if price stalls.
