Introduction
Gold futures bounced out of the support zone around 4,000, the turquoise rectangle on the chart, and that bounce ran into more or less a 17% rally. From the previous high on 25 August we’ve had a small pullback of about 8%, which is a 50% retracement, and that’s a good place to see where the trend is going from here.
On the 9 September session price is 4,444.9. The two levels that matter now are the 2 September low at 4,329.3 and the 3 September high at 4,558.6. Until that band decides, 4,329.3 / 4,558.6 / 4,755 is the map.
Gold Futures Trend Analysis
The 4,000 area is the support zone that started this move. The bounce off that floor was strong, and it carried gold up into the late-August high. What we’re looking at now is the pullback from that 25 August high at 4,755, which has retraced about half of the rally.
If price is able to break above 4,558.6, the bullish momentum is likely to continue, and the target is that previous swing high on 25 August at 4,755. If, however, we don’t get a break above that level, and price drops below 4,329.3, there’s going to be some support from the 50-day moving average, which is the orange line on the chart. If that isn’t able to hold, then price is going to look for support again back around 4,100 in that same turquoise zone.
Key Levels
| Level | Notes |
|---|---|
| 4,755 | 25 August swing high. Upside target if bulls clear 4,558.6. |
| 4,558.6 | 3 September high. Break above keeps bullish momentum going. |
| 4,444.9 | 9 September session price. |
| 4,329.3 | 2 September low. Break below puts the 50-day in play. |
| 4,313.3 | 50-day MA (orange). Next support if 4,329.3 fails. |
| ~4,100 / 4,000 | Turquoise support zone. Comes back into play if the 50-day cannot hold. |
Possible Trades
Scenario 1: Bullish continuation
- Entry trigger: daily close above 4,558.6
- Stop: below 4,329.3
- Target: 4,755 (25 August high)
Scenario 2: Breakdown
- Entry trigger: daily close below 4,329.3
- Stop: above 4,558.6
- Target: 50-day MA first, then ~4,100 / the turquoise zone if that fails
Scenario 3: Range / do not chase
If gold holds between 4,329.3 and 4,558.6, we stay out of the middle. The pullback into the 50% retracement is already in. Chasing either side before a clean daily close is the trade we do not take.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
