Introduction
Euro FX futures (6E) have been in a steady downtrend on the daily chart because of the strength in the US dollar after the escalations in the Middle East. Price is currently below an important support level, and a more worrying sign for the Euro bulls is that it is starting to act as resistance.
The 50 MA has crossed below the 200 MA, the first time since April 2025. This is a death cross and normally leads to extended periods of declining prices. It is important to note, however, that it is a big lagging indicator and requires follow-through from the price in order for it to confirm.
Key Levels to Watch
The former support at 1.155–1.160 is now the most important resistance. As long as price remains below this area, the bearish bias remains intact.
Below current price, the next support sits around 1.145, followed by a broader zone near 1.135, which aligns with previous swing lows.
On the upside, a reclaim of 1.160 would be the first sign that the breakdown is failing, but stronger confirmation would require a move back above 1.18, where the moving averages converge.
Fundamentals
It is clear that the main driver here is the fact that the Dollar is strengthening. The conflict in the Middle East is the number one and most important aspect that all 6E futures traders should watch.
Probability Table
| Scenario | Description | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish Continuation | Rejection below 1.155 leads to 1.145 → 1.135 | 55% |
| Consolidation | Range between 1.145–1.160 | 30% |
| Bullish Reversal | Reclaim of 1.160 shifts structure higher | 15% |
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Futures and forex trading involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
