Introduction
Crude oil has started to show signs of weakness after failing to hold above $100, marking an important shift from the previous analysis.
In the last report, the key idea was that acceptance above $100 could lead to continuation toward $110–$120. Instead, price has rejected from the highs and rotated lower into the $88–$90 area.
The sudden drop comes after Trump’s ceasefire bid. Let’s take a closer look at the technicals and what they are telling us.
Market Structure & Trend
Daily Timeframe – From Continuation to Pullback
The overall trend is still pointing upward, but in the short term, momentum has weakened. The move above $100 didn’t hold, at least for now, and the price has started to slip from higher levels. A lower high has also formed, which is often a sign that buying pressure is easing.
All of this suggests the market may be shifting from continuing its upward trend into a short-term pullback. The main question now is whether this is just a healthy correction before another move higher, or the beginning of a deeper decline.
Volume Profile
The volume profile adds strong context here:
- High-volume node around $88–$90 (current price)
- Major value below at $70–$72
- Thin volume above $100
This confirms that price has rotated back into a high-liquidity area, where the market tends to slow down and balance.
The loss of $100 pushed price back into fair value, where both buyers and sellers are active again.
Possible Trades
- If price rejects $95–$100, downside continuation remains likely
- If price breaks below $88, expect rotation toward $80
- If price reclaims $100, bullish continuation scenario reactivates
Probability Table
| Scenario | Description | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pullback Continuation | Break below $88 leads to move toward $80–$82 | 45% |
| Range Consolidation | Price holds between $88–$100 | 35% |
| Bullish Reclaim | Reclaim of $100 leads to renewed upside | 20% |
Invalidation Levels
- Below $88 → confirms deeper pullback
- Above $95 → improves short-term strength
- Above $100 → restores bullish structure
Ending Off
Crude oil is no longer in a clear breakout phase and has moved into a period of pullback and reassessment. The key shift came when price failed to stay above $100. Since then, it has dropped back into a high-volume area where the market is trying to decide whether to stabilize or continue lower.
Right now, the $88 to $90 range is important. How price reacts there will likely show whether this is just a healthy pause before moving higher again, or the start of a deeper decline.
Traders need to stay flexible. The market is no longer moving in one clear direction, so patience matters while the next move takes shape. For those looking to take advantage of the current volatility in crude oil, there is also a 10% coupon available for the OneUp Trader funded trader program.
