Introduction
The Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) have attempted a bullish shift and are targeting the 50-day moving average. A reclaim of that moving average is necessary for bulls to gain the upper hand again. Small-cap stocks remain weaker than large-cap indices, but the recent bounce in the RSI and price could signal that the retracement since November is coming to an end.
Technical Overview
RTY is now attempting to recover after a sell-off from the highs made at the end of October. The first level is the 50-day moving average, and then 2,567.
The longer-term uptrend is still upward as long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average. After the recent two-day green bullish engulfing candles, there is strength coming through from the bulls, but prices will need to remain above those candles (2,302), or there is risk the sellers could push prices downward to the 200-day moving average.
The RSI has recovered from oversold levels near 35, now climbing toward 49 and crossing above its signal line.
On the downside, support at 2,350–2,360 remains intact, having held through multiple tests in October and November. If this level breaks, it would significantly weaken the medium-term outlook.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance
| Level | Description |
|---|---|
| 2,415–2,420 | Reclaim zone. |
| 2,455–2,470 | 50-day MA. |
| 2,500 | Psychological round number. |
Support
| Level | Description |
|---|---|
| 2,360–2,350 | November low / key demand |
| 2,310 | Secondary support from September |
| 2,227 | 200-day MA (major long-term support) |
Probability Table (Next 2–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bounce continuation toward 2,455–2,470 | 50% | Improving RSI + support held; needs to reclaim 2,415. |
| Range-bound between 2,350–2,420 | 35% | Likely if equities remain mixed and small-caps lag. |
| Breakdown below 2,350 → move toward 2,310 | 15% | Only if macro risk-off intensifies or yields spike again. |
Fundamentals to Watch
U.S. Treasury yields continue to be the biggest influence on market direction, and small-cap stocks like those in the Russell 2000 (RTY) tend to benefit the most when rates decline. While market breadth is starting to improve, it remains fragile, which is limiting RTY’s ability to gain meaningful upside traction.
Looking ahead, upcoming economic data, especially CPI and employment reports could have a bigger impact on RTY than on NQ or ES, given small caps’ heightened sensitivity to credit conditions. In this environment, Federal Reserve commentary remains crucial. Any signal of a shift toward policy easing would likely be a strong bullish catalyst for RTY.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
