Introduction
The Russell 2000 futures (RTY) are consolidating just below their previous all-time high (ATH) at 2,477.1 after breaching it two weeks ago. After a strong run through mid-September, momentum has slowed slightly. The bulls are still in control, however, and it should remain that way as long as the rising trendline and 50 ma hold the price.
The 50-day moving average at 2,340.6 continues to trend upward, where it crossed above the 200-day moving average back on the 6th of August. However, the RSI at 58.88 has dipped from earlier overbought levels, signaling consolidation rather than outright weakness and selling.
The key question for traders is whether bulls have enough momentum to push decisively above the ATH resistance or if a retest of lower support will come.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: ATH at 2,477.1 – breakout level to watch.
- Near-term support: 2,384.8, followed by the 50-day MA at 2,340.6.
- Deeper support: 2,300 zone, aligned with August’s consolidation.
Probability Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout above ATH toward 2,500–2,520 | 45% | Trend favors bulls, but momentum has slowed. |
| Consolidation between 2,384–2,477 | 40% | Most likely as RSI cools and price digests gains |
| Pullback to 2,340–2,300 support | 15% | Only if sellers reclaim momentum. |
Possible Trade Opportunities
- Bullish breakout play: Potential Long on a confirmed daily close above 2,477, targeting 2,500–2,520, possible stops below 2,445.
- Range trade: Possible Buy near 2,385–2,390, possible sell near ATH resistance at 2,477 if consolidation persists.
- Bearish: If price closes below 2,384, short entries possibly open toward the 50-day MA at 2,340.6.
Ending Off
RTY remains bullish but is pausing at the previous ATH. Bulls remain in control but might have to weather a consolidation phase before gaining strength again and attempting to push above the ATH. The RSI is cooling but not bearish and the price is well above both the 50 and the 200 moving averages.
