S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) Technical Analysis

Focus: Recovery Attempt from Post-ATH Breakdown

The S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) are staging a sharp rebound after the mid-March correction, pushing higher for the sixth session in a row. This move comes off the back of oversold RSI conditions and follows a significant rejection from the all-time highs marked in February.

Technical Overview

• Trend Structure:
  • The broader structure remains bullish in the long-term, but the recent price action broke below the 100-day and 50-day SMAs.
  • However, the index is now retracing back up toward the broken moving averages and the key pivot level at 5992.50.
• Moving Averages:
  • The 100-day SMA (5962.20) and 50-day SMA (5938.10) are currently overhead and converging, forming a short-term resistance band.
  • These will be key to watch: a close above would revalidate the uptrend, while rejection here would suggest more range-bound or corrective activity.
• Pivot Levels:
  • S1 (5818.75) has now been reclaimed, supporting the idea of a strong V-shaped recovery.
  • R1 (6137.25) sits just above the ATH resistance zone (~6154.75), creating a strong confluence level to the upside.
  • A move above this would put R2 (6311.00) in play.

Key Takeaways

• The recovery is firm, with back-to-back green candles.
• Price is testing the lower boundary of the previous range, and how it interacts with the 50- and 100-day SMAs and pivot zone will determine near-term direction.
• A confirmed breakout above ~5990–5960 area would likely invite trend-following bulls to re-engage, pushing ES back toward the highs.
• If price stalls at this level, a pullback toward 5818 or even 5674 (S2) can’t be ruled out.

Outlook

• Short-Term: Bullish bias remains while above 5818. The recovery has legs, but faces a decision point near the moving averages.
• Medium-Term: Needs a decisive break above the 5990–6150 area to re-challenge ATHs.
• Risk: A failed breakout here could trap late buyers and pull the market back into consolidation or even a retest of March lows.

🔹 Trade Idea 1 – Long Breakout Entry

Setup: Break and close above the 100-day SMA / Pivot zone (~5990–6000)

• Entry Trigger:
  • Wait for a daily close above 5992.50 (pivot), ideally with strong volume.
  • Optional confirmation: retest of breakout zone with a small intraday pullback.
• Target Zones:
  • Target 1: 6137.25 (R1)
  • Target 2: 6154.75 (ATH resistance)
  • Target 3: 6311.00 (R2, trend continuation target)
• Stop Loss:
  • Below 5935 (just under the 50-day SMA and breakout structure)
  • Conservative stop: below 5818.75 (S1)
• Probability Bias:
  Medium-high probability with momentum building and RSI turning bullish.

🔹 Trade Idea 2 – Short Rejection Play

Setup: Rejection from 5990–6000 pivot / moving average confluence zone

• Entry Trigger:
  • Bearish reversal candle near 100/50-day SMAs (e.g. shooting star, bearish engulfing)
  • RSI stalls around 50 and rolls over
• Target Zones:
  • Target 1: 5818.75 (S1)
  • Target 2: 5674.00 (S2)
  • Target 3: 5500.25 (S3, only if broader risk-off develops)
• Stop Loss:
  • Above 6005 (false breakout risk control)
  • Conservative stop: above 6137 (R1 invalidation)
• Probability Bias:
  Moderate probability – valid if price gets rejected hard from confluence resistance.

🔹 Trade Idea 3 – Trend Continuation Pullback Long

Setup: Pullback toward 5818.75 (S1) support zone holds

• Entry Trigger:
  • Bullish candle or intraday reversal pattern at or near 5818
  • RSI stays above 40 during pullback
• Target Zones:
  • Target 1: 5990–6000 (pivot retest)
  • Target 2: 6137.25 (R1)
• Stop Loss:
  • Below 5745
  • Conservative stop: below 5674 (S2)
• Probability Bias:
  High if the recovery fails to break 6000 on first attempt but finds support above S1.

This is a key inflection zone for ES — either the recovery morphs into full trend resumption or stalls into distribution.