Introduction
Russell 2000 E-Mini Futures (RTY) are trading at 2,213.3, down slightly by -0.23% on the day. After a strong multi-week rally off the April lows, price has paused and is now pulling back from the 2,230s, testing the 200-day MA and previous minor resistance-turned-support near 2,212.7. Its a important level to watch to see if the price will continue its upward momentum or if it will start to fade. As long as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continue to rally, RTY should follow suit.
Price Structure Breakdown
- Uptrend remains intact, but short-term momentum has faded.
- Price is close to testing the 200-day MA (~2,212.7), which acted as a ceiling in April/May and could now serve as a support pivot.
- The 50-day MA (~2,134) continues to rise, creating a bullish crossover foundation.
- The market remains well below the ATH of 2,477.1, leaving substantial upside room if bulls regain control.
Key Technical Levels
| Level Type | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| All-Time High (ATH) | 2,477.1 | Long-term target/resistance |
| Resistance | ~2,230 | Short-term rejection area |
| Immediate Support | 2,212.7 | 200-day MA – under pressure now |
| Secondary Support | 2,187.1 | Minor support (50% retracement from June move) |
Probabilities Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bounce off 200-day MA and resume uptrend | 50% | Retest and continuation toward ATH (~2,477) |
| Range-bound drift (2,180–2,230) | 35% | Choppy trading, consolidation mode |
| Break below 2,180 and head to 2,134 area | 15% | Short-term reversal risk grows |
Trade Ideas
Buy the restest: Entry zone around 2,210-2,215 with target of 2,250-2,280 and a stop set below 2,180.
Range trader short: Entry zone around 2,230 with target of 2,190-2,200 and a stop set above 2,245.
Timeframe Summary
| Timeframe | Bias | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Neutral to Bullish | Pullback within trend, watch for bounce |
| Medium-Term | Bullish | Higher lows and strong base in place |
| Long-Term | Cautiously Bullish | Still below ATH, but improving structure |
Final Take
The Russell 2000 is at an important level, sitting right on top of the 200-day MA after a strong advance. As long as 2,180–2,212 holds, bulls remain in control, and a rotation back toward 2,250–2,280 is in play. A deeper flush below 2,180 would signal a more serious pause or potential reversal—but that’s not the base case yet.
