Previous update: Gold Technical Analysis – July 15, 2025
Recap & Context
In the last update, we noted that Gold was compressing along trendline support and the 50-day moving average, forming a higher low setup just under the ATH zone. Today, we are seeing confirmation: GC has surged above the pivot level of $3,345.6, tagging resistance at $3,439 — right under the ATH.
Bulls have maintained control.
Technical Analysis
- Trendline support from December 2024 remains intact and respected.
- Price is trading above the 50-day and well above the 200-day moving average, reinforcing the medium-to-long term bullish trend.
- Pivot cluster breakout at $3,345 area confirmed on strong follow-through.
- Immediate resistance sits at the ATH zone ~$3,510.
- Support re-aligned to $3,345 (pivot) and $3,340 (50-day MA).
- RSI remains neutral to slightly bullish, indicating healthy momentum without overheating.
Pivot-Based Levels
| Level | Value | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 3,665.0 | Strong upside extension target |
| R2 | 3,570.6 | Measured move breakout objective |
| R1 | 3,439.2 | Currently testing – near-term resistance |
| Pivot | 3,345.6 | Breakout level – now acting as support |
| S1 | 3,213.4 | Trendline and structure support |
Probability Table (Short- to Medium-Term Outlook)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Breaks ATH and rallies toward R2 ($3,570) | 50% | Technicals support a breakout; dollar weakness helps |
| Consolidation between $3,345–$3,510 | 35% | Market digests gains; wait for macro or Fed cues |
| False breakout & returns to trendline | 10% | Would need strong USD bounce or risk-off shock |
| Breakdown below $3,213 | 5% | Only on extreme event or inflation cooling fast |
Trading Strategy Ideas
- Swing Long (Momentum):
- Entry: On a daily close above $3,510
- Target: $3,570–$3,665
- Stop: Below $3,430, tighter stop for breakout traders
- Pullback Long:
- Entry: Around $3,345–$3,350 (pivot + MA cluster)
- Target: Retest of ATH and higher
- Stop: Below $3,295 (just under trendline)
Fundamental Watch
- Dollar weakness is aiding this breakout effort.
- Watch for:
- Fed speakers and PCE data.
- Any geopolitical or inflation data surprises.
- ETF inflows or Central Bank buying data – both have supported gold in prior runs.
Final Take
Gold is now firmly back in breakout territory, with trendline support, pivot structure, and volume alignment suggesting higher highs may be imminent. The ATH at $3,510 remains the final hurdle, a breakout here would lead to a much larger bull leg.
