Weekly Chart

• Current Price: 1.15650
• Major breakout above the 1.13070 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the 2021–2023 bear market.
• Cleared a long-term resistance zone (highlighted in purple) between 1.1150 and 1.1300, flipping this area into potential new support.
• MACD Weekly: Strong bullish cross with wide divergence.
• Next major Fibonacci resistance comes at 1.17735 (78.6% retracement), and after that, the full retrace target is 1.23675.
• The overall structure now leans toward a multi-month bullish trend dependent on what happens in the US.

Daily Chart

• Daily Structure: Steep uptrend intact — price well above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
• Pivot Points:
  • Immediate resistance R2: 1.13880 (already broken intraday).
  • Next key pivot R3: 1.17275 — aligns near the 78.6% Fibonacci zone.
• RSI: Overbought (77.04) but no divergence yet — strength confirmed.
• The consolidation breakout earlier in March now fuels momentum continuation.

Technical Key Points

Bullish Scenario

• Euro remains in “buy-the-dip” mode as long as price holds above 1.1300–1.1350.
• Breakout projections point toward 1.1725–1.1770 next.
• If the rally continues without deep pullbacks, a full retracement to 1.2367 (2021 highs) could unfold into the summer.

Upside Targets:

• 1.17275 (Pivot R3 + Fib Confluence)
• 1.17735 (Fib 78.6% Retracement)
• 1.23675 (2021 High)

Bearish Scenario

• Watch for overbought corrections — healthy pullbacks toward 1.1300 could offer re-entry opportunities.
• Failure to hold 1.1300 support would invalidate the immediate bullish bias and potentially trigger a retrace back toward 1.11150 (old R1 pivot).
• No bearish momentum signals yet, but monitoring RSI divergence in the coming weeks will be important.

Downside Risk Levels:

• 1.1350 (short-term support)
• 1.1150 (breakout retest)

Reflection and Current Market Stance

This bullish breakout in 6E has been primarily driven by USD weakness rather than Eurozone strength:

• Dollar bearish factors:
  • Weaker U.S. growth outlook
  • Rate cut expectations rising
  • Inflation softening slightly
  • Political uncertainty in the U.S. regarding fiscal policy and global trade
• Euro support factors:
  • ECB maintaining relatively restrictive tone compared to the Fed
  • Improving European economic sentiment data

Thus, macro and technical factors align bullishly for the Euro — but short-term overbought readings suggest that tactical pullbacks are natural and healthy.

Conclusion

Short-term: Overbought but strong trend intact
Medium-term: Bullish with upside targets toward 1.17–1.18
Long-term: Clear potential to retest the full prior bear market highs at 1.23675 if trend momentum persists

Summary Table: