Introduction
A trader on TradingView has shown us an interesting long-term analysis for Bitcoin, targetting a peak between $113,000 and $120,000 USD. This pump is due to Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies and a favorable regulatory outlook.
Bitcoin has doubled in value this year and surged 40% since the U.S. election, as investors get bullish on “crypto-friendly” Congress and the Trump administration. The cryptocurrency hit a high of $96,898 in Asia trade, edging closer to the psychological $100,000 milestone. Let’s see the technicals.
Technical Analysis
Long-Term Trendline Resistance (Sell Zone: $113,000 – $120,000)
The trader highlights a long-term ascending trendline, which has acted as resistance during Bitcoin’s major bull cycles (notably in 2017 and 2021). This line points to a potential peak around $113,000 to $120,000.
Wave 4 Consolidation & Wave 5 Target
The chart shows Elliott Wave Theory and Bitcoin has broken out of Wave 4 consolidation and entered Wave 5, a bullish phase in market cycles. The trader projects Wave 5 to peak between $106,000 (1.382 Fib extension) and $122,000 (1.618 Fib extension), consistent with the broader narrative of bullish momentum.
Short-Term Magnet: $100,000
As IG Markets analysts noted, Bitcoin is being magnetically drawn to $100,000, a key psychological level. This rally is fueled by technical momentum, institutional flows, and retail speculation.
Overbought Indicators
While momentum remains strong, the chart and Reuters analysis both warn of overbought conditions. A consolidation or pullback is likely once Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 milestone, as traders lock in profits ahead of the anticipated long-term resistance zone.
Fundamental Drivers Behind the Rally
- Pro-Crypto Trump Administration
- Trump has vowed to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” and even proposed accumulating a national stockpile of Bitcoin.
- A pro-crypto Congress is expected to clear regulatory uncertainties, fostering an environment where Bitcoin and other digital assets can thrive.
- Institutional Adoption
- Over $4 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs since the U.S. election, with BlackRock’s ETF seeing strong demand for call options.
- Crypto-related stocks like MARA Holdings and MicroStrategy are surging alongside Bitcoin, reflecting growing institutional confidence in the space.
- Market Sentiment & Blockchain Ecosystem Growth
- Excitement surrounding blockchain technology and crypto-enabled ecosystems is adding fuel to the fire, with analysts like WisdomTree’s Will Peck calling the current environment “bullish for the entire blockchain ecosystem.”
Bullish Case 📈
- Targeting $100,000: Bitcoin’s technical breakout and institutional inflows suggest a continued march toward the $100,000 psychological level in the short term.
- Wave 5 Expansion: Fibonacci projections and long-term trendlines support a potential peak between $113,000 and $120,000 during this cycle.
- Regulatory Optimism: The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance could provide the clarity needed to sustain Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
Bearish Considerations ⚠️
- Overbought Conditions: The rapid rise, particularly the 40% gain since the U.S. election, puts Bitcoin in overbought territory, raising the risk of a short-term correction.
- Sell Pressure Near $100k: The psychological barrier at $100,000 could trigger profit-taking, leading to consolidation or a pullback before the next leg up.
- Historical Crash Risks: The chart warns of a potential post-peak decline, with some expecting a massive retracement to $50,000 once the bull cycle ends.
Final Takeaway
Bitcoin’s rally is driven by a perfect storm of technical breakouts, institutional adoption, and optimism surrounding Trump’s pro-crypto policies. The short-term target is firmly set at $100,000, but the long-term focus lies on the $113,000-$120,000 zone, which could mark the peak of this cycle. Traders should keep an eye on overbought conditions and prepare for volatility as Bitcoin enters uncharted territory. 🚀
