Bitcoin CME Futures have broken decisively above the previous all-time high (ATH) at $112,110, trading at $118,840 with a strong +4.36% daily move. This marks a major technical breakout as bulls surge past psychological resistance, powered by a falling dollar, growing ETF inflows, and broad risk-on sentiment.
This breakout could pave the way for the new bull move, with $125,000–$130,000 coming into view if momentum continues.
Technical Overview
| Indicator | Status |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $118,840 |
| Previous ATH | $112,110 – clean breakout |
| 50-day MA | $105,783 – dynamic support |
| 200-day MA | $97,315 – long-term support |
| Trend | Strong bullish continuation |
Price surged nearly $5,000 in a single session, leaving behind a clean breakout candle on strong momentum.
Key Price Zones
| Level Type | Price Range |
|---|---|
| New Support (prior ATH) | $112,000–$113,000 |
| Minor Support | $105,000–$107,000 |
| First Resistance Target | $123,000–$125,000 |
| Fibonacci Extension Zone | $128,000–$132,000 |
The previous ATH now flips into support. Any retest of this zone could attract dip buyers. At the moment, the price action is firmly bullish and has broken past that level with a lot of power, so any dips back to that support seem unlikely as of now.
Probabilities Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout holds → target $125k–$130k | 60% | Bullish continuation with no overhead resistance |
| Consolidation between $112k–$120k | 30% | Healthy pause before next leg up |
| False breakout → drop back under $112k | 10% | Only if risk-off or macro shocks return |
Trade Opportunities
| Strategy Type | Setup Description |
|---|---|
| Breakout Long | Buy continuation on strength above $119,000 with $125k target |
| Pullback Buy | Buy retest of $112k–$113k with tight stop, target $122k+ |
Macro & Sentiment Drivers
- DXY weakness continues, driving crypto and risk assets higher.
- ETF inflows and institutional demand are accelerating post-ATH breakout.
- Global equity rally and Fed pause expectations provide macro tailwind.
Dollar correlation remains strong: Bitcoin has been inversely tracking the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which just broke key support. This gives BTC room to extend the rally if macro conditions remain loose.
Outlook Summary
| Timeframe | Bias | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Bullish | Breakout from ATH with strong candle |
| Medium-Term | Bullish | Trend intact with no overhead supply |
| Long-Term | Bullish | Structural support well above moving averages |
Conclusion
Bitcoin futures have officially entered price discovery, breaking above the prior ATH and launching into uncharted territory. The technicals remain strongly bullish, but as always in crypto, volatility is high, and a retest of breakout zones is common.
Traders may consider holding breakout positions with a trailing stop, or waiting for a retest of the $112k–$113k area to re-enter with favorable risk-reward.
