Bitcoin Bulls Buy Back
Bitcoin has maintained its position as the leading cryptocurrency in 2024, building on the momentum generated by the historic approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. The digital asset, which started the year trading around $45,000, has rallied 58% since January.
Wall Street’s traditional finance giants, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have seen their Bitcoin ETFs attract billions in inflows, marking a decisive shift in mainstream acceptance of the digital asset. This institutional embrace has helped legitimize Bitcoin as an asset class among conservative investors who previously remained on the sidelines.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Bull Flag
The bull flag on the daily chart exhibits all the classical characteristics of a bull flag pattern. We can see a powerful upward thrust forming the flagpole, giving way to the consolidation phase, and now we can extend the initial thrust as a target of around $110,000.
Key Levels and Targets to Note:
- ATH (All-Time High) Resistance: The ATH level is $74,415. This will act as the first major resistance level from here.
- Upside Target: The flagged target is $110,000, projected based on the height of the flagpole added to the breakout point. This aligns with a classic bull flag measurement, making it a feasible long-term target if momentum continues.
High-Probability Trade Setups:
Long Trade Setup #1: Post-Breakout Retest Entry
- Entry: Watch for a potential retest of the flag’s upper trendline or the immediate support near $65,300. Entering on a successful retest (i.e., confirmation with bullish reversal candlesticks) offers a low-risk entry point.
- Stop Loss: Set just below the flag’s upper trendline or below the 50-day SMA, around $62,000, to avoid being stopped out in case of minor volatility.
- Target: Short-term target of $74,415 (ATH) for an initial profit-taking point. If momentum continues strongly past ATH, look to trail the stop and target levels up to $90,000 and $110,000.
Long Trade Setup #2: Momentum Continuation Play Above ATH
- Entry: Enter long on a daily close above $74,415 (ATH), as a strong breakout above this level can signal sustained bullish momentum.
- Stop Loss: Set just below $72,000, allowing for some volatility around the ATH breakout without risking too much.
- Target: Use a trailing stop to capture potential upside. Short-term target would be $85,000, with potential extensions to $90,000 and ultimately $110,000 if the bullish trend persists.
- Risk-Reward: This setup has a slightly higher risk due to entry around ATH resistance, but it also captures potential for an aggressive bullish trend continuation.
Long Trade Setup #3: Pullback to 50-Day SMA Support
- Entry: If the price fails to sustain the current breakout and pulls back to the 50-day SMA (around $62,357), it offers a more conservative entry.
- Stop Loss: Place below the next major support zone, around $59,000, in case the pullback extends lower.
- Target: Use the same targets as above—first to ATH at $74,415, then $85,000, with potential extensions.
- Risk-Reward: This approach minimizes immediate breakout risk and aims for a safer entry point based on dynamic support.
4. Final Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-Term (1-2 weeks): Watch for a retest of the breakout level. Momentum and volume will confirm strength; this would favor a move towards the ATH.
- Medium-Term (2-3 months): Targeting a breakout beyond ATH ($74,415) for sustained upside. A confirmed breakout here could drive prices toward $85,000–$90,000.
- Long-Term (6+ months): With the bull flag breakout and potential macro factors aligning, the target of $110,000 remains viable, provided Bitcoin sustains above the ATH and market conditions remain favorable.
