Introduction
Nasdaq futures have bounced 10% from their recent low after the news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. This has given the bulls a boost as price is currently trading above both the 50 and 200 moving average. There was a recent death cross where the 50 moved below the 200, but as we know with moving averages they are lagging indicators.
The Dollar also lost some ground, which is undoubtedly helping the rally in US equities for the time being.
Lets take a look at the technicals and what they are telling us.
Market Structure
NQ broke down aggressively into the 23,000–23,500 area, with both momentum and structure turning bearish. That move took price well below both the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average.
As we already mentioned, this sell-off occurred because of the conflict in the Middle East, and the recent rally is based on the ceasefire now. It shows that this market is completely driven by the geopolitical risk and technicals have very little bearing on the price action.
The most important level right now is 25,000–25,300.
If price can break and hold above this zone, then the breakdown starts to look like a shakeout, and upside toward 26,000+ becomes more likely.
If it fails here, then this becomes a lower high, and the focus shifts back down, but it will all depend on the developments in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz closes again, it is surely going to lead to a huge problem in the world, and financial markets will suffer.
Probabilities
| Scenario | Description | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Lower High / Rejection | Failure at 25,000–25,300 → move back toward 24,000 or lower | 45% |
| Range Development | Chop between 23,500–25,300 | 35% |
| Bullish Reclaim | Strong break above 25,300 → move toward 26,000+ | 20% |
Possible Trades
This is a decision zone, so patience matters. Short setups become more interesting if price fails at 25,000–25,300, especially with signs of rejection. That aligns with the idea of a lower high forming.
On the long side, the only strong case is a clean reclaim of 25,300 with acceptance above it. Without that, longs are trading into resistance.
If price rotates lower, the 24,000 area becomes the first level where buyers may step back in.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Futures and forex trading involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
