Introduction
The Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) are attempting to consolidate after a sharp drop that pushed the price back into the support zone in last week’s analysis. On November 17, NQ dipped below the support band at 24,400 and the 50-day moving average. Since then, the index has continued to weaken. Let’s take a closer look at the technicals and what they are telling us.
Nasdaq Technical Overview
Price Testing Deep Support Beneath October’s Range
The recent selloff drove NQ into the 24,500–24,350 support zone, which held in September and early October.
However, NQ remains below the key resistance at 25,100–25,350, where:
- The prior breakout zone sits
- The 50-day moving average (25,117.40)
- Multiple failed retests occurred in early November
This zone has flipped into resistance, so bulls now face a big hurdle before momentum turns positive again. Buyers need the price to break above the 50-day moving average, clear the resistance at $25,100, and close above it to confirm the possibility of the trend continuation.
If the 24,350–24,500 zone fails on the next test:
- First target: 24,000 – 24,100
- Secondary target: 23,500, near August highs
- Worst case: a full retracement toward the 200-day MA (22,468)
This would deepen the correction and shift the medium-term bias toward neutral rather than bullish.
Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 25,100–25,350 | Former ATH breakout zone. |
| Resistance 2 | 26,000 | Psychological. |
| Resistance 3 | 26,880 | R1 pivot. |
| Support 1 | 24,500–24,350 | Strong demand zone. |
| Support 2 | 24,000–24,100 | Next reaction area if support fails. |
| Support 3 | 22,468 | 200-day MA. |
NQ Probability Table (Next 2–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Range between 24,350 – 25,350 | 50% |
| Breakout above 25,350 → retest 26,000 | 30% |
| Breakdown below 24,350 → fall to 24,000 | 20% |
Fundamentals
NQ’s recent weakness reflects several overlapping pressures, including rising Treasury yields last week, mixed tech earnings with downward guidance revisions, and a stronger U.S. dollar that’s weighing on mega-cap names. Heightened geopolitical tensions have also added to the cautious tone.
However, with yields starting to stabilize and early signs of optimism around the holiday season, tech may begin to find its footing again. Investors are closely watching upcoming inflation data, which will play a key role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s tone heading into December.
If CPI or PCE reports come in hotter than expected, growth stocks could face renewed pressure.
Summary
The Nasdaq 100 Futures are rebounding from the 24,350–24,500 support zone after a multi-session decline. While this bounce is constructive, the index is still below the major 25,350 resistance cluster, and the short-term trend remains weakened.
As long as NQ trades under that level, the market is in a corrective phase, and rallies should be viewed cautiously. A sustained move above 25,350 would shift momentum back to bullish, while losing 24,350 reopens downside toward 24,000.
For now, the outlook is neutral, with buyers attempting to regain control but not yet showing decisive strength.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
