Introduction
The Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) are continuing the slow, controlled pullback that began after the index surged to fresh all-time highs in late October. Price action remains consistent with the consolidation described in the previous analysis.
Despite recent softness, the uptrend remains intact, with NQ still trading comfortably above its major moving averages. The key question now is whether bulls can continue to defend the 25,300–25,500 support zone or whether the ongoing retracement will drop further.
NQ Technical Analysis
NQ is now trading just above the 25,300–25,600 support band, the same zone highlighted previously as the top of the October consolidation and home to the pivotal 25,520 breakout level. The market has tested this area multiple times in the past week, showing that buyers remain active, but upside follow-through has been limited.
The 50-day moving average is a key indicator to watch because the price has bounced off this MA many times. Bulls will be looking to keep that going as it would confirm the strong uptrend still has its legs.
Key near-term levels to watch:
- Support:
- 25,520 → pivot zone / previous ATH support
- 25,300–25,200 → lower edge of breakout structure
- 25,035 (50-day MA) → trend-defining support
- Resistance:
- 25,900–26,000 → immediate resistance
- 26,300 → short-term swing high
- 26,882.50 (R1) → major breakout trigger
A decisive close below 25,300 would increase the likelihood of a deeper pullback toward the 24,760–24,650 region, where the 50-day MA and S1 pivot converge. Conversely, a recovery above 26,000 would signal that buyers are regaining control.
NQ Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 26,000–26,100 | Immediate resistance. |
| Resistance 2 | 26,882.5 | R1 pivot. |
| Resistance 3 | 27,761 | R2 pivot. |
| Support 1 | 25,520 | Pivot point. |
| Support 2 | 25,035 | 50-day MA. |
| Support 3 | 24,647 | S1 pivot. |
Estimated Probability Table (Next 2–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidation between 25,500–26,100 | 55% | Market respecting support. |
| Breakout above 26,900 → target 27,700+ | 30% | Still possible if momentum returns and buyers reclaim 26k. |
| Pullback toward 24,700–24,500 | 15% | Risk increases only if 25,300 fails. |
NQ Fundamentals
The Nasdaq remains supported by strength in the tech sector, but overall sentiment has turned more cautious:
- Profit-taking after hitting all-time highs.
- Investors are processing new data, with U.S. growth slowing but still holding up.
- The Fed’s recent stance points to steady interest rates, offering a stable environment for risk assets.
- That said, geopolitical tensions and soft earnings guidance from some mega-cap tech firms have added a layer of uncertainty.
Summary
NQ is sitting at an important support level at $25,500. A drop below this level would lead to an immediate test of the 50-day moving average, which bulls will need to maintain in order for sentiment to remain bullish. A drop below that level could lead to heightened volatility and a possible drop to 24,647.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.