Introduction
The Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (NQ) are hovering just below record highs, as buyers successfully defended the 50-day moving average. The uptrend remains intact after the 3.5% single-day drop on the 10th of October. The index is consolidating beneath its all-time high (ATH) near 25,394, and price continues to test it on the shorter time frames.
Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows a steady uptrend, with NQ making higher highs and higher lows since early September. The 50-day moving average (24,332.26) is rising, showing short-term bullish momentum as buyers defended the level. A recent bounce off this level confirmed it as strong support and signaled the rally is back on.
Right now, the price is tightening just below all-time high resistance at 25,394, near the R1 pivot at 25,611. A clear breakout above this zone could push the index toward the next resistance at 26,320. If it fails to break out, a mild pullback to around 24,800–24,500 is possible before another try.
The 200-day moving average is much lower at 22,009, which shows the long-term uptrend is still solid.
Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 25,394 | All-time high (ATH) |
| Resistance 2 | 25,611 | R1 pivot |
| Support 1 | 24,800–24,500 | Near-term support from prior swing lows |
| Support 2 | 24,332 | 50-day moving average (key trend support) |
| Major Support | 23,609 | S1 pivot |
Probability Table (Next 2–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout above 25,394–25,611 | 55% | Strong momentum and structure support further upside. |
| Range-bound consolidation between 24,800–25,400 | 30% | Market digestion phase before next move. |
| Pullback to 24,300–24,000 | 15% | Only likely if breakout attempts fail and volume wanes. |
Fundamentals
Price is holding up thanks to strong tech earnings expectations and steady Treasury yields, which have eased pressure on high-growth stocks. A weaker U.S. dollar and less geopolitical tension have also helped boost market confidence after early October swings.
Investors are now watching upcoming earnings from big Nasdaq names, especially in cloud, AI, and semiconductors, to see if the index can break through resistance. Fed comments this week could also shift sentiment, especially if they hint at a more cautious stance heading into late 2025.
Even with short-term resistance, investors still have a positive outlook on large-cap tech, keeping the Nasdaq in a leadership position among U.S. indexes.
Ending Off
Nasdaq 100 futures are testing record highs again, with the trend still favoring the bulls. As long as the price stays above 24,300, the outlook stays positive. A breakout above 25,394 could push it past 26,000.
Overall, the bullish trend remains strong, backed by solid technicals and improving market conditions.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.