Introduction
The Euro has made a decisive reclaim of the 1.08 handle after bouncing from the 1.0630 support zone—an area of high demand that has repeatedly served as a pivot in the past two years.
Chart Structure & Key Levels
- Support:
The support zone around 1.0630–1.0750 has acted as a floor throughout 2023 and into early 2025. The most recent bounce reinforces this area as a solid structural base. - Resistance:
The Euro is now facing potential overhead resistance near 1.0900–1.1000, which coincides with the swing highs from mid-2023. It’s not yet under direct pressure, but it’s the next technical target if momentum holds. - SMA Alignment:
Price is currently trading above both the 50-week and 100-week SMAs. While they are not in a fully bullish stack yet, this crossover zone lends additional weight to the 1.0760–1.0805 level as support going forward.
Momentum Conditions
- The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory with both %K and %D lines around 80–82. This suggests that while momentum has been strong, the Euro may be running into short-term exhaustion.
- The oscillator has not yet crossed downward, but traders should remain alert to a bearish crossover in the coming weeks—especially if price begins to stall or pull back below 1.08 again.
Macro & Sentiment Backdrop
- Euro Strength Drivers:
The EUR has benefited from a pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which recently corrected after a strong start to Q1 2025. That correction gave space for the Euro to reclaim lost ground.
Additionally, stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data in late March has contributed to hawkish expectations around ECB policy tightening, or at the very least, a delay in cuts—helping the common currency further. - Dollar Dynamics Still Matter:
However, the USD remains supported by sticky US inflation and cautious Federal Reserve commentary. If the Dollar regains footing in April, it could apply renewed pressure on EUR/USD and reverse some of the recent gains.
Scenarios Moving Forward
Bullish Continuation Scenario
- If price holds above 1.08 on a weekly closing basis, there is room for continuation toward the 1.0930–1.1000 resistance band.
- A clean breakout above 1.10 could expose 1.1150, especially if ECB rhetoric stays firm and USD remains capped.
Bearish Pullback Scenario
- A close below 1.08 (and especially below 1.0750) would reintroduce the risk of a revisit to the 1.0630–1.0650 support zone.
- This would align with a bearish Stochastic crossover and a reassertion of USD strength—especially if upcoming US jobs or inflation data surprises to the upside.
Trade Opportunities
Bullish Pullback Setup (High Conviction)
- Entry Zone: 1.0760–1.0800
- Trigger: Bullish weekly close after a dip into this zone
- Target: 1.0930 → 1.1000
- Stop: Below 1.0630
Short-Term Bearish Swing (Overbought Fade)
- Entry Zone: 1.0860–1.0900
- Trigger: Stochastic crossover + weekly close back under 1.080
- Target: 1.0650
- Stop: Close above 1.0930
