Introduction
S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) have shown signs of stabilization following a sharp break below the long-term trendline. The latest price action has formed a bullish inside day, so there is potential exhaustion of the recent sell-off and the start of a short-term rebound.
As of today, ES is trading at 5,977.25, up +0.23%, holding just below the 100-day SMA (5,988.50). Bulls need to reclaim this level to gain momentum.
Technical Analysis
1. Bullish Inside Day Pattern
- The inside day means there is reduced volatility and indecision, often signaling a potential reversal when it appears after a strong downtrend.
- A break above the high of the inside candle (5,984.50) would confirm bullish momentum.
2. Key Moving Average in Play
- The 100-day SMA (5,988.50) is acting as immediate resistance. A close above this level would improve the short-term outlook.
- The long-term trendline remains above current price, suggesting that a full bullish recovery would require a move back above 6,000.
3. MACD Momentum Still Bearish
- The MACD histogram remains in negative territory, but the pace of bearish momentum is slowing.
- Signal lines are converging, indicating that a bullish crossover could occur if price strengthens.
Support & Resistance Levels
- Resistance Levels:
- 5,988.50 (100-day SMA – Key Short-Term Level)
- 6,000 (Psychological Level & Trendline Resistance)
- 6,145.75 (All-Time High – Major Resistance)
- Support Levels:
- 5,947.00 (Friday’s Low – Must Hold for Bulls)
- 5,800.00 (Deeper Support – Next Level if Selling Resumes)
If ES clears 5,988.50, a relief rally toward 6,000 and potentially 6,145.75 could follow. However, failure to reclaim the 100-day SMA would keep bears in control.
Bull & Bear Scenarios
Bull Case: Relief Rally Above 5,988.50
- A break above 5,988.50 would confirm the bullish inside day pattern, targeting 6,000 initially.
- If the 100-day SMA is reclaimed, buyers could push for a retest of the ATH (6,145.75).
Bear Case: Failure at the 100-day SMA & New Lows
- If ES cannot hold 5,947.00, price could retest 5,800.00.
- The MACD remains bearish, suggesting that the downtrend could resume if resistance holds.
Outlook Summary
- Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Neutral to bullish, watching if price can break 5,988.50.
- Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Cautiously bullish as long as ES holds above 5,947.00.
- Long-Term (6+ Months): Uptrend intact unless ES breaks below 5,800.00.
