S&P 500 futures
Technical Analysis

Technicals get out of hand in S&P 500 futures (ES)

Weekly Chart Observations:

ES has been getting out of hand lately and just continues to rally no matter what. The Alligator indicator has the Lips (4821.50), Teeth (4733.71), and Jaw (4631.17) fanning out, which confirms the trend strength. Taking shorts now is highly risky and the only thing that could stop this market from going higher is a black swan event.

ES weekly chart with alligator indicaotr and rising parrallel channel

Key Levels to Watch on the Weekly:

  • Upper Channel Line: A sustained move above 5020.75 could indicate further upside potential.
  • Alligator Lips: Holding above 4821.50 is crucial for maintaining the current bullish bias.

Daily Chart Observations:

The daily chart showcases the trend’s health with price action nestled comfortably above the trend median (TM) at 4927.05. This trend-following metric offers strong support.

Daily chart ES with supertrend and gaussian channel

Key Levels to Watch on the Daily:

  • Immediate Support: The trend median (TM) at 4927.05 acts as the first defense line for bulls.

15-Minute Chart Analysis:

The 15-minute Heikin Ashi chart shows consolidation in the short term, but if we remember the longer term picture we can use it to our advantage and get more precise entries.

Key Levels to Watch on the 15-Minute:

  • Resistance 1 (R1): At 5030.75, this level may see initial friction, but a break could lead to testing higher resistance levels.
  • Pivot Point (P): The level at 5003.75 serves as a fulcrum for the current range. A hold above this suggests continued control by buyers.
15 min heikin ashi with pivot points indicator

Potential Trades:

  • Bullish Trade: A confident entry would be above the R1 level at 5030.75, targeting the next resistance (R2) at 5047.00, with a stop loss below the pivot (P) at 5003.75.
  • Bearish Trade: Should we see a clear break below the pivot (P), a short position could be considered, targeting the first support (S1) at 4987.25, with a stop loss set just above the pivot level.

Rating and Final Thoughts:

Our analysis provides a Bullish rating on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES). The channel’s upward trajectory, in conjunction with the Alligator indicator’s bullish alignment and price holding above key levels on all timeframes, solidifies our bullish conviction. We will monitor these levels closely, prepared to act as the market gives us more information. The bulls seem to have a firm grip on the market, and as long as these levels hold, we anticipate further upward movement. Remember, the market respects no one, but with these levels and indicators in our toolkit, we navigate with a clear, confident compass.