Introduction
Previous analysis: ES Futures Analysis – July 14, 2025
The S&P 500 futures continue with the strong uptrend, now reaching new all-time highs with barely any pullback since the mid-June breakout. The weakening US Dollar undoubtedly is impacting this. The daily RSI has just breached 72.91, entering overbought territory. When the RSI is at levels like this, it could be best to avoid longs until a pullback arrives but in slow grinding trends like this, it could remain in overbought for very long periods of time.
Technical Breakdown
- Price Action:
- Price has broken decisively above 6,300 resistance and is now in blue-sky territory.
- Small-bodied candles near highs signal potential for slowing momentum or consolidation ahead.
- Moving Averages:
- The 50-day MA at 6,109 and 200-day at 5,914 are both firmly upward sloping, signaling strong medium-term structure.
- The crossover seen in June remains a bullish confirmation.
- RSI (14):
- RSI at 72.91 confirms strong bullish momentum but also signals short-term exhaustion risk.
- Look for a potential divergence setup or stalling price action for mean-reverting trades.
Probability Table (Next 1–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Continued breakout toward 6,450–6,500 | 50% | Strong trend + no resistance + seasonality |
| Consolidation around 6,350–6,400 | 35% | RSI cooling and profit-taking likely |
| Pullback to 6,200–6,250 support zone | 15% | Only if macro data disappoints or earnings misfire |
Key Levels
- Resistance:
- Blue-sky: 6,450 psychological round number
- Support:
- First minor: 6,350 (recent breakout zone)
- Stronger: 6,109 (50-day MA), then 5,914 (200-day MA)
Trade Ideas
Momentum Longs
- Entry: Pullback into 6,350–6,370 range
- Target: 6,450–6,500
- Stop: Below 6,290
Cautious Fade (Short-Term)
- Entry: Near 6,400+ on overbought RSI signal
- Target: 6,330–6,300
- Stop: Close above 6,430
- Notes: Only for aggressive traders countering short-term exhaustion
Final Thoughts
The S&P 500 remains technically bullish across all timeframes. However, with RSI breaching 70+, momentum traders may want to tighten stops or trail positions, while others may prepare for brief consolidation or sector rotation. Macro catalysts like earnings, inflation data, or Fed guidance could determine whether this move pushes even higher—or cools off.
