s&p 500 technical analysis
Technical Analysis

S&P 500 (ES) Technical Analysis, 7 August 2025


Market Snapshot

MetricValue
Price as of 7 August6,385.25
Day’s Change+14.25 (+0.22%)
50-Day MA6,201.13
200-Day MA5,940.58
14-Day RSI59.02

Technical Overview

S&P 500 ES technical analysis

Price Structure & Trend

  • The uptrend remains intact with price trading firmly above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
  • After a brief pullback last week, ES has posted three consecutive green candles, telling us the bulls are still in control.
  • The recent low around 6,290 is forming a higher low, which is strengthening the bull case even further.

Momentum & RSI

  • RSI has recovered to 59.02, bouncing from just above 50.
  • This momentum reset during the pullback helps cool prior overbought conditions and gives more strength for a move higher after that.

Key Technical Levels

LevelTypeSignificance
6,450–6,460ResistanceAll-time highs zone
6,290–6,300SupportRecent low and short-term demand zone
6,20150MAStrong trend support
5,940200MALong-term trend floor

Probability Table

ScenarioEstimated ProbabilityReason
Breakout above ATH (6,460+) this week40%Momentum building but needs catalyst
Consolidation between 6,300–6,450 continues45%Sideways consolidation after sharp move
Breakdown below 6,290 → retest of 50DMA (~6,200)15%Less likely unless macro shocks hit

Trade Setups

Bullish Setup

  • Entry: Close above 6,400
  • Target: 6,500+ (psychological and extension level)
  • Stop: Below 6,290 (last swing low)

Bearish Setup

  • Entry: Rejection at 6,450 followed by red candle below 6,300
  • Target: 6,201 (50MA)
  • Stop: Above 6,450

Ending Off

ES is recovering from a small dip which gave a small buying opportunity to traders. All US indices are rallying at this time and the dip was likely because of the recent recovery in the Dollar. Bulls remain in control and probabilities are pointing toward a move above all time highs once more.