Introduction
The S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) saw its largest single-day drop since April on Friday, October 10, after President Trump announced via social media that he was considering new tariffs on select Chinese technology imports. Now, price is in discovery mode as bulls are seeing this as a possible buying opportunity. Lets take a closer look at the technicals and see what they are pointing toward.
Technical Overview
ES trades near 6,631, extending the correction that began after the early October highs around 6,780–6,800. The market found initial support near the 6,570–6,580 area, a key support zone where the 50-day moving average (6,574) aligns with previous range resistance (now acting as support).
The daily RSI slipped to 46.78, reflecting slowing momentum but not yet oversold conditions. The short-term bias remains corrective within a longer-term bullish structure, as the 200-day MA (6,084) remains well below and rising. The 50-day moving average has also been tested, and price has bounced off it so far. Bulls will be looking for price to remain above this level for the current overall bullish momentum to continue.
For bulls, holding above 6,570 is critical. A close below this level could expose the 6,400–6,420 area (mid-August pivot zone). Conversely, reclaiming 6,700+ would signal that buyers have regained control.
Key Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance | 6,700–6,750 | Reclaiming would improve the short-term outlook |
| Support 1 | 6,570–6,580 | 50-DMA and prior breakout zone |
| Support 2 | 6,400–6,420 | August swing base |
| Major Support | 6,084 | 200-day MA; structural long-term floor |
Probability Table (Next 1–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Stabilization above 6,570 followed by range-bound trade | 45% | Market digests Trump tariff shock and awaits earnings clarity. |
| Further decline toward 6,400 | 35% | Renewed tariff rhetoric or weak macro data could accelerate downside. |
| Swift recovery above 6,750 | 20% | Would require easing geopolitical noise and a rotation back into risk. |
Summary
ES futures are in a healthy correction phase within an ongoing uptrend, even after the announcement from Trump. The 6,570 area represents a critical zone for short-term direction, holding it keeps the broader bullish bias intact, while a break lower could invite deeper retracement toward 6,400.
Momentum has cooled, but the long-term structure remains constructive as long as 6,084 holds.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
