Introduction
S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) are trading just below their all-time high (ATH) of 6,154.75.
As of today, ES is less than 0.2% away from ATH. A breakout above 6,154.75 would confirm the next leg higher, with a measured move target near 6,455.25.
Market Drivers & Key News Events
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations: While the latest inflation data came in slightly above expectations, the market still anticipates rate cuts later in 2025, supporting equities.
- Earnings Strength: Large-cap stocks continue to deliver strong earnings, particularly in the tech sector, keeping bullish momentum intact.
- Market Structure: The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows forming consistently within the channel.
Technical Outlook
ATH Test
- ES is pressing against the ATH (6,154.75) but has yet to break through.
- The price remains inside a rising channel, with the next upside target at 6,455.25.
- 100-day SMA (5,971.41) continues to provide support, keeping the uptrend intact.
Bull & Bear Scenarios
Bull Case: Break Above 6,154.75
- If price clears ATH, momentum could accelerate toward 6,455.25.
- Strong earnings and Fed rate cut expectations continue to provide a tailwind.
Bear Case: Rejection at ATH & Pullback
- If ES fails to break 6,154.75, price could retest 6,100.00 or the 100-day SMA (5,971.41).
- A break below 5,900.00 would shift market structure and increase downside risk.
Final Outlook
- Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Bullish, watching for a breakout attempt at 6,154.75.
- Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Bullish as long as price stays above the 100-day SMA (5,971.41).
- Long-Term (6+ Months): Trend intact unless price falls below 5,900.00.
