Recap from August 13 Analysis
In our previous analysis, we looked at how gold was consolidating below its all-time high near $3,510 but holding above the $3,345-$3,375 support zone. Gold was slowly making higher lows and forming an ascending triangle, and has now broken above it, making a new high of $3,640.1.
Now that the bulls are back in control, let’s take a fresh look at the technicals for gold futures.
Technical Analysis
Trend & Breakout
Since the August analysis, Gold has broken above the $3,510 ATH, rallying to $3,640 before pulling back slightly, but bulls are already starting to buy up the small dip. This breakout confirms the bullish trend continuation, and now Gold is in brand new price discovery.
Market Context
The Dollar has remained weak, which is helping gold’s momentum, and geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand remain a strong tailwind for the yellow metal as investors still look to hedge with precious metals. This is all adding to the strength of Gold and, combined with the breakout of the all time high, is sending it to prices never seen before.
Key Technical Levels
| Level | Type | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| $3,620–3,650 | Immediate Resistance | Near-term ceiling, price discovery zone |
| $3,510 | Breakout Support | Former ATH, now a key retest level |
| $3,394 | 50-day MA | Medium-term support |
| $3,345–3,375 | Prior Base | Deeper correction zone |
| $3,094 | 200-day MA | Long-term support |
Probability Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Continuation toward $3,650–$3,700 | 60% | Breakout above ATH intact |
| Retest $3,510 before bouncing | 25% | Likely if sellers press into prior breakout zone |
| Deeper pullback to $3,400–$3,375 | 15% | Only if macro shifts (stronger DXY, lower inflation risk) |
Trade Ideas
Bullish Play (trend continuation)
- Entry: Buy pullbacks into $3,510–$3,530 zone
- Target: $3,650–$3,700
- Stop: Below $3,475
Bearish Hedge (failed retest scenario)
- Entry: Short if daily close falls back under $3,500
- Target: $3,400–$3,375
- Stop: Above $3,560
Final Takeaway
Gold has delivered exactly what we outlined in mid-August: a bullish breakout above $3,510. Now, at $3,600+, the market is in price discovery and is pushing all-time highs.
Unless bulls lose $3,510 decisively, the bias remains bullish with upside toward $3,650–$3,700 in the near term. Any dip into the breakout zone ($3,510) would be a buy-the-dip opportunity for trend followers.
