Introduction
In the 10 December 2025 analysis, Gold was consolidating just beneath all-time highs after a strong bullish uptrend that has seen Gold rising 61% this year. After a 10.6% retracement in October, the faith of the bulls was put to the test and was proven strong enough as GC’s momentum is returning.
There are some small bearish candles forming at the highs, so the next few sessions will be important as we approach Christmas to see if the bullish momentum will continue.
Let’s take a closer look at the technicals and what they are telling us.
Technical Analysis
Gold is currently trading just below the ATH of 4,398.00 made in October this year. The formation of two bearish evening stars/pin bars could lead to a small retracement, but the resistance at the high was to be expected as profit-taking crept in.
The RSI is not yet overbought and is getting close to approaching that level. The move is healthy and is supported by the 14 MA applied to the RSI. The indicator also breached and stayed in overbought levels from the beginning of September to the end of October, showing us how much demand there has been for the yellow metal.
There is also an ascending triangle forming with support at the 50 day ma at 4,136.7. If price breaks above the high eventually, 4,700 would be the next target. For now, bulls have the upper hand as long as the price remains above the 50-day moving average.
Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 4,380–4,400 | All-time highs |
| Resistance | 4,450+ | Extension zone if breakout holds |
| Support | 4,250–4,200 | Near-term structure support |
| Support | 4,135 | 50-day moving average |
| Support | 3,550 | 200-day moving average / long-term trend |
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidation below ATH (4,200–4,400) | 45% | Most likely outcome as price digests gains and waits for a catalyst. |
| Breakout above 4,400 toward higher extension | 35% | Requires strong acceptance above ATH and renewed momentum. |
| Pullback toward 4,200–4,135 support | 20% | Would still be corrective as long as the 50-day MA holds. |
Outlook
Relative to the 10 December analysis, Gold has remained directionally consistent, continuing to consolidate just beneath record highs. The inability to break decisively higher so far reflects short-term balance rather than weakness.
As long as price holds above the 50-day moving average and prior structure lows, the broader technical picture remains constructive. Near-term price action suggests Gold is likely to remain range-bound beneath ATH resistance, with any directional resolution dependent on acceptance above or rejection from the current highs.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
