Recap from August 15 Analysis
In our previous CL analysis, we highlighted:
- CL was trapped in a broad consolidation range between $63–72.
- The pivot zone near $65 was noted as a key zone.
- Bulls needed to reclaim the $68–70 resistance cluster to resume upside momentum, while bears were watching the $63–64 support for a possible breakdown toward the mid-$50s.
Technical Analysis
Trend & Structure
CL in the long term is not in a clearly defined trend, the price remains between $63 and $73. There is a symmetrical triangle formation but price has not had a clearly defined break even after attempting to on the 2nd of September. There is a fight between bulls and bears at the $65 pivot and is the most important level in the short term.
Momentum
- The rejection just below R1 ($68.5) shows bulls lack follow-through.
- Momentum has shifted back toward sellers, and today’s red candle suggests renewed pressure on the $63 support.
Key Technical Levels
| Level | Type | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| $68–70 | Resistance Zone | Sellers defended strongly again, major breakout level |
| $65.0 | Pivot | Battle line between short-term bull/bear control |
| $63.4 | Support 1 | Being tested, risk of breakdown |
| $60.5 | Support 2 | Next downside pivot |
| $55.0–55.3 | Major Support | Bottom of the broader range |
Probability Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Break above $68–70 → push toward $72–73 | 30% | Needs fresh bullish catalyst (OPEC supply cuts, geopolitical escalation) |
| Range hold between $63–68 | 40% | Most likely near term, as neither bulls nor bears show dominance |
| Breakdown below $63 → test $60, then $55 | 30% | Repeated rejections + descending structure favor sellers |
Trade Ideas
Bullish Play (if reclaim above $65.5)
- Entry: Above $65.5 pivot reclaim
- Target: $68.5, then $72
- Stop: Below $63.5
Bearish Play (if daily close < $63)
- Entry: Breakdown below $63 with volume
- Target: $60.5, then $55
- Stop: Above $65
Final Takeaway
Since the August 15th analysis, CL has followed the roadmap: consolidating between $63 and $68, rejecting resistance, and leaning back toward support. Unless $68–70 breaks decisively, the market bias tilts bearish-to-neutral, with a $63 breakdown potentially triggering a sharper selloff into the low $60s or even mid-$50s.
