Introduction
Crude oil futures have rebounded after testing support, but the long-term downtrend resistance remains intact. As of today, NYMEX WTI crude oil (CL) is trading at $73.00, up 0.94%, as buyers attempt to push prices higher after a recent rejection near $75.30. However, the descending trendline that has capped rallies since mid-2023 remains a major technical hurdle.
Technical outlook
Support Holds, but Trendline Resistance Looms
- Crude oil recently bounced from a well-established support zone between $67 – $69, which has acted as a demand area for months.
- However, the price remains below the long-term descending trendline, which has acted as resistance multiple times since 2023.
Key technical levels
- Resistance Levels:
- $74.32 – $75.30 (Trendline + VWMA)
- $80.00 – $82.00 (Breakout confirmation zone if trendline is cleared)
- Support Levels:
- $70.00 – $69.00 (Short-term support)
- $67.00 – $65.00 (Major support zone, critical for bulls)
Until crude oil breaks above $75.30, the overall bias remains cautious. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger a bullish trend reversal, potentially sending prices toward $80.00 – $82.00. However, failure to clear resistance could lead to another pullback toward $70.00 or lower.
Bull & bear scenarios
Bull Case: Breakout Above $75.30
- If crude oil clears the descending trendline, a move toward $80.00 – $82.00 could follow.
- The previous rejection was met with strong buying pressure at support.
Bear Case: Another Rejection at Resistance
- If CL fails at $75.30, a pullback toward $70.00 is likely.
- A breakdown below $67.00 would invalidate the recovery attempt, opening the door for further downside.
Final Outlook
- Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Neutral to bullish—watch for a break above $75.30 or a rejection.
- Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Bearish unless trendline breaks, resistance remains strong.
- Long-Term (6+ Months): Neutral to bearish, unless oil establishes a firm uptrend above $80.00.
