Technical Analysis
Price Action and Structure
- Crude has bounced from a double bottom at ~$55.12, forming higher lows, and is now testing the pivot and consolidation ceiling at $61.87.
- A break above $62.50–63.00 could signal further upside toward the R1 resistance at $68.62, which also aligns with the lower boundary of the previous value area (purple zone).
- Failure here opens the door for a pullback into $59 and possibly retesting the $55s.
Volume Profile
The high volume node near $61–63 shows this region is a fair value zone—prices above may accelerate upward if there’s a strong breakout. Notice the very thin volume just above $64, if price moves above this level we could see it accelerate very quickly.
Bullish Case
- Trigger: Break and hold above $62.60
- Target 1: $64.30 (resistance within value zone)
- Target 2: $68.62 (R1 pivot)
- RSI is rising and no divergence yet.
Catalysts: U.S. driving season (seasonal tailwind), falling inventories, potential OPEC+ rhetoric.
Bearish Case
- Trigger: Failure to reclaim $63 and breakdown below $60.20
- Support Zone: $59.00 → $55.12 (major support)
- Target: $51.46 (S1 level)
- If macro risk sentiment sours, or DXY rebounds sharply, oil may retreat back into the range.
Catalysts: China demand slowdown, stronger USD, or risk-off global sentiment.
Summary Table
| Factor | Current Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Price Action | Retesting resistance | Inflection zone |
| RSI | 52.01, rising | Bullish momentum building |
| Volume Profile | Strong base near $61 | Breakout could be sharp |
| Support Levels | $59.00 / $55.12 | Bulls must defend on pullbacks |
| Resistance Levels | $62.50 / $64.30 / $68.62 | Multi-layered resistance |
Timeframe Bias
| Timeframe | Bias | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Bullish | As long as $61.50–62 holds |
| Medium-Term | Neutral to Bullish | Need breakout above $64 to confirm reversal |
| Long-Term | Neutral | Still below declining major trendlines |
Final Take
Crude oil is attempting to build a bottom and reclaim lost ground after a multi-month selloff. The $61.87–63 area is the key battleground. If bulls push through, $68 becomes viable quickly. However, failure and rejection could trap longs and send price back to the $59 and $55 levels.
Watch for a daily close above $63.00 for confirmation.
