Bitcoin Technical Analysis, 5 June 2025

Trend Structure

• BTC is trading within a well-defined rising channel. The recent rejection near the upper boundary of the channel lined up with resistance from:
  • ATH horizontal level (110,150)
  • R1 pivot (113,755)
• The current pullback is healthy, not impulsive, so it could just be some profit taking. What would be more concerning is if we saw a very sharp pullback from the ATH.

Key Support Levels

Resistance Levels

Market Psychology

• After the strong May breakout, price rallied aggressively and now consolidates.
• This current setup resembles a bull flag or pennant, which could be bullish continuation, especially if RSI stabilizes and price holds above 102,000.
• However, the lack of follow-through post-ATH and fading RSI warns of momentum loss, typical before deeper pullbacks.

Trade Setups

Scenario A – Bullish Breakout Play

• Trigger: Daily close above 110,500 with increasing volume.
• Target: 122,000 (R2), then 132,000 (R3 top of channel).
• Invalidation: Daily close below 102,000 or break of rising channel support.

Scenario B – Pullback Buy Setup

• Zone: 95,000–97,000
• Reason: Retest of S1 + mid-channel + previous breakout level
• Trigger: Bullish reversal candle or RSI bounce from 50
• Stop: Below 92,000 (prior swing low)

Bearish Risk Scenario

• A break below 95,000 would invalidate the bullish structure short-term.
• RSI falling below 50 while price breaks the channel would open the door to S2 at 85,000, and eventually S3 ~76,000 as worst-case consolidation range.

Summary