Introduction
The Nasdaq 100 has pulled back from resistance after another failed attempt to push into new highs. While the broader trend remains bullish on a higher-timeframe basis, recent price action shows a market that is struggling to extend higher in the short term.
This isn’t a breakdown. But it is a reminder that upside momentum has slowed. After weeks of choppy consolidation near the highs, sellers have been more active at key resistance, and buyers have been less aggressive chasing price higher. The result is a market that looks tired.
Market Summary
Primary trend: Bullish on higher timeframes
Current market perspective: Pullback from resistance within a broader uptrend
Key support (line in the sand): 25,000–25,100
Bias-defining level: 26,300–26,500
Risk to the thesis: Sustained price below the 50-day moving average
What Triggered the Pullback
Price had rallied back into a well-defined resistance zone near prior highs, where sellers have consistently shown up.
A few things likely contributed:
- Repeated rejection at resistance: Each push into the 26,300–26,500 zone failed to attract follow-through.
- Momentum loss: Upside progress slowed, and candles became smaller and more overlapping.
- Position trimming: With price near highs and volatility elevated across markets, traders appear to be reducing exposure rather than pressing new longs.
Market Structure & Trend
Daily Chart
On the daily chart, NQ has slipped back below the 50-day moving average, which now sits just above current price. This matters, but context matters more.
A few key observations:
- The pullback remains orderly rather than impulsive
- Price is still well above the rising 200-day moving average
- No major support levels have been broken yet
As long as NQ holds above the 25,000 area, this move looks like a corrective pullback inside a larger bullish structure. The market is cooling off, not collapsing.
Key Technical Levels
Line in the Sand
25,000–25,100:
This zone aligns with prior support and nearby pivot structure. Holding above it keeps the bullish thesis intact. A sustained break below would increase downside risk toward lower value.
Levels That Shape the Bias
26,300–26,500:
This remains the most important resistance area.
Reference and Extension Levels
24,350–24,400:
Next meaningful downside reference if support fails.
27,000+:
Upside extension zone if NQ reclaims resistance and moves back into price discovery.
Looking Forward: Scenarios
Bullish Continuation (40%)
NQ holds above 25,000, reclaims the 50-day MA, and makes another attempt to break through resistance near 26,500.
Sideways Consolidation (40%)
Price chops between 25,000 and 26,500 as momentum resets and the market digests recent gains.
Deeper Pullback (20%)
A loss of 25,000 opens a move toward the mid-24,000s while keeping the longer-term uptrend intact.
Final Takeaway
The Nasdaq isn’t showing any major warning signs. What we’re seeing instead is a normal slowdown after a strong run. Momentum has eased, resistance is being respected, and buyers are taking a more selective approach.
That’s a healthy shift, not a negative one. Strong trends often need time to reset, and this kind of pause helps rebuild a better base for the next move higher. Nothing in the current price action suggests the broader uptrend is in trouble.
As long as NQ continues to hold key support, pullbacks remain constructive. The focus isn’t on whether the trend is broken, but on allowing the market the time it needs to set up for another solid attempt at new highs.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
